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Méthodes quantitatives et prévisions économiques en période de crise. Intérêt et limites.

Bouzahzah, Mohamed (2020): Méthodes quantitatives et prévisions économiques en période de crise. Intérêt et limites.

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Abstract

This paper is a reflection on the use of quantitative methods to forecast the macroeconomic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was the subject of a communication at the webinar organized by the FSJES of Salé (Mohammed V University - Rabat) on June 23, 2020 under the theme "Quantitative methods and economic modeling to the test of Covid-19". It is actually about the predictive power of economic models in general and during the crisis of COVID-19 more specifically. It addresses questions about the interest, relevance and limitations of these forecasting exercises. It answers them by examining the first works published during the pandemic. Indeed, a few papers, among the most cited by the Google Scholar engine, are selected to show how economists adapted their econometric and forecasting models (CGEIM, DSGE, etc.) and which assumptions were used for forecasting purposes.

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