Optimal time series in the reserve design problem under climate change

Gerling, Charlotte and Schöttker, Oliver and Hearne, John (2022): Optimal time series in the reserve design problem under climate change.

Abstract

Climate change causes range shifts of species and habitats, thus making existing reserve networks less suitable in the future. Existing optimisation procedures hence need to be adapted in order to account for changes in the spatial distribution of habitat types as well as their relative occurrence. We develop a multi-objective optimisation procedure that considers these dynamic changes. We demonstrate the functioning of the model by applying it to a conceptual case study. In this case study, we aim to gain an understanding on the consequences of not adapting the reserve network despite climate change and the optimal adaptation pathways for different funding levels. Finally, we consider whether larger flexibility in terms of when to adapt the reserve network by providing a one-off payment instead of regular payment improves the outcome achieved. We find that the optimisation procedure is a suitable tool to identify adaptation pathways as the outcome is improved, especially for habitat types that become increasingly threatened. Initially providing a one-off payment instead of regular payments leads to higher habitat protection.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Conservation planning; climate adaptation; climate-ecological-economic modelling; optimal time series; range shift; RD problem; spatial changes; temporal changes
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C63 - Computational Techniques ; Simulation Modeling; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q57 - Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services ; Biodiversity Conservation ; Bioeconomics ; Industrial Ecology; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q58 - Government Policy

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