The Fiscal Transmission Mechanism of Inflation

Gmeiner, Robert and Larson, Sven (2023): The Fiscal Transmission Mechanism of Inflation.

Abstract

The link between money creation and inflation has been theoretically demonstrated, but different inflation responses to Federal Reserve activity after the Great Recession and COVID recession showed the incomplete nature of the theory. We model a ``fiscal transmission mechanism'' whereby Federal Reserve purchases of Treasury securities lead to inflation as new dollars flow through fiscal deficits into the economy. In our model, other Federal Reserve activity generally lacks inflationary effects. Using a nonstructural vector autoregression approach, we test for the presence of this mechanism and offer near perfect predictions of the 2022 inflation rate using a time series extending back half a century. We explain the fiscal transmission mechanism and the reasons why other Federal Reserve activity lacks the same effects, and we propose an emphasis on controlling the money supply by limiting Federal Reserve purchases of Treasury securities as a better way to control inflation than setting an interest rate target.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: inflation, transmission mechanism, monetary policy, fiscal policy, budget deficits
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E63 - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Stabilization ; Treasury Policy; H - Public Economics > H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt > H63 - Debt ; Debt Management ; Sovereign Debt

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