Public Primary School Expansion, Gender-based Crowding Out, and Intergenerational Educational Mobility

Ahsan, Md Nazmul and Shilpi, Forhad and Emran, Shahe (2023): Public Primary School Expansion, Gender-based Crowding Out, and Intergenerational Educational Mobility.

Abstract

From 1965 to 1985, the number of schools doubled in developing countries, but little is known about their impacts on intergenerational educational mobility. We study the effects of 61,000 public primary schools constructed in the 1970s in Indonesia on intergenerational educational mobility, using full-count census data and a credible identification strategy. The educational mobility curve is concave in most of the cases, and school expansion reduced the degree of concavity. Evidence from a DiD design on primary completion suggests contrasting effects across the distribution: relative mobility improved irrespective of gender in the uneducated households, but it worsened in the highly educated households. For completed years of schooling, there are striking gender differences, with strong effects on sons, but no significant effects on girls. This surprising finding reflects an unintended bottleneck at the secondary schooling level which created a fierce competition among the Inpres primary graduates. The girls suffered an 8.5 percentage points decline in the probability of completing senior secondary schooling, while the boys reaped a 7.7 percentage points gain. The gender-based crowding out occurred across the board, suggesting mechanisms unrelated to family background such as low labor market returns for girls and gender norms in a patrilineal society. Available evidence on returns to education of girls rejects a labor market based explanation. We test and find evidence consistent with gender norms as a mechanism by exploiting data from the Matrilineal island West Sumatra. In West Sumatra, girls are not crowded out at the secondary level, instead the boys face significant crowding out.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Public Schools, Intergenerational Mobility, Education, Theory-based Nonlinearity, Indonesia, Pitfalls of Linearity, Gender Bias, Social Norms, Big Data
• Subjects: I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I2 - Education and Research Institutions > I24 - Education and Inequality; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J16 - Economics of Gender ; Non-labor Discrimination; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J62 - Job, Occupational, and Intergenerational Mobility; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O20 - General

References

Abramitzky, R., Boustan, L., JÆcome, E., and PØrez, S. (2021). Intergenerational mobility of immigrants in the united states over two centuries. American Economic Review, 111(2):580 608. Acciari, P., Polo, A., and Violante, G. L. (2022). And yet it moves: Intergenerational mobility in italy. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 14(3):118 63. Adermon, A., Lindahl, M., and Palme, M. (2021). Dynastic Human Capital, Inequality, and Intergenerational Mobility. American Economic Review, 111(5):1523 1548. Afkar, R., Yarrow, N., Surbakti, S., and Cooper, R. (2020). Inclusion in Indonesia’s education sector: A subnational review of gender gaps and children with disabilities. The World Bank. Agüero, J. M. and Ramachandran, M. (2020). The intergenerational transmission of schooling among the education-rationed. Journal of Human Resources, 55(2):504 538. Ahsan, N., Emran, M. S., and Shilpi, F. (2021). Complementarities and Intergenerational Educational Mobility: Theory and Evidence from Indonesia. MPRA Paper 111125, University Library of Munich, Germany. Ahsan, N. M., Emran, M. S., Jiang, H., Murphy, O., and Shilpi, F. J. (2022). When Measures Conflict: Towards a Better Understanding of Intergenerational Educational Mobility. Working paper, The World Bank. Akresh, R., Halim, D., and Kleemans, M. (2018). Long-term and Intergenerational Effects of Education: Evidence from School Construction in Indonesia. NBER Working Papers 25265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Alesina, A., Hohmann, S., Michalopoulos, S., and Papaioannou, E. (2021). Intergenerational Mobility in Africa. Econometrica, 89(1):1 35. Andrade, S. B. and Thomsen, J.-P. (2018). Intergenerational educational mobility in denmark and the united states. Sociological Science, 5:93 113. Apouey, B., Nissanov, Z., and Silber, J. (2022). Ordinal variables and the measurement of upward and downward intergenerational educational mobility in european countries. Review of Income and Wealth. Asher, S., Novosad, P., and Rafkin, C. (2023). Intergenerational Mobility in India: Estimates from New Methods and Administrative Data. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. Forthcoming. Ashraf, N., Bau, N., Nunn, N., and Voena, A. (2020). Bride price and female education. Journal of Political Economy, 128(2):591 641. Assaad, R. and Saleh, M. (2018). Does Improved Local Supply of Schooling Enhance Intergenerational Mobility in Education? Evidence from Jordan. World Bank Economic Review, 32(3):633 655. Azam, M. and Bhatt, V. (2015). Like Father, Like Son? Intergenerational Educational Mobility in India. Demography, 52(6):1929 1959. Aziz, I., J. (1990). INPRES’ Role in the Reduction of Interregional Disparity. Asian Economic Journal, 4(2):1 27. Azomahou, T. T. and Yitbarek, E. (2021). Intergenerational Mobility in Education: Is Africa Different? Contemporary Economic Policy, Forthcoming. Bau, N., Rotemberg, M., Shah, M., and Steinberg, B. (2020). Human capital investment in the presence of child labor. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research. Bazzi, S., Hilmy, M., and Marx, B. (2020). Islam and the state: Religious education in the age of mass schooling. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research. Becker, G. (1981). A Treatise on the Family. Harvard University Press. Becker, G., Kominers, S. D., Murphy, K., and Spenkuch, J. (2015). A Theory of Intergenerational Mobility. MPRA Paper 66334, University Library of Munich, Germany. Becker, G. S., Kominers, S. D., Murphy, K. M., and Spenkuch, J. L. (2018). A Theory of Intergenerational Mobility. Journal of Political Economy, 126(S1):7 25. Behrman, J. R. and Deolalikar, A. B. (1995). Are There Di erential Returns to Schooling by Gender? The Case of Indonesian Labour Markets. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 57(1):97 117. Berman, Y. (2022). The long-run evolution of absolute intergenerational mobility. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 14(3):61 83. Bjorklund, A. and Jantti, M. (2020). Intergenerational mobility, intergenerational effects, sibling correlations, and equality of opportunity: A comparison of four approaches. Research in Social Strati cation and Mobility, 70:100455. Black, S. E. and Devereux, P. J. (2011). Recent Developments in Intergenerational Mobility. In Handbook of Labor Economics, volume 4, chapter 16, pages 1487 1541. Elsevier. Black, S. E., Devereux, P. J., Lundborg, P., and Majlesi, K. (2020). Poor Little Rich Kids? The Role of Nature versus Nurture in Wealth and Other Economic Outcomes and Behaviours. Review of Economic Studies, 87(4):1683 1725. Black, S. E., Devereux, P. J., and Salvanes, K. G. (2005). Why the apple doesn’t fall far: Understanding intergenerational transmission of human capital. American economic review, 95(1):437 449. Blanden, J. and Machin, S. (2013). Educational Inequality and The Expansion of United Kingdom Higher Education. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 60(5):597 598. Breen, R. (2010). Educational expansion and social mobility in the 20th century. Social Forces, 89(2):365 388. Calkins, R. and Sengupta (1992). Indonesia, Women in Development: A Strategy for Continued Progress. Report no. idp-112, east asia and pacific regional series, World Bank Group. Card, D., Domnisoru, C., and Taylor, L. (2022). The intergenerational transmission of human capital: evidence from the golden age of upward mobility. Journal of Labor Economics, 40(S1):S39 S95. Carneiro, P., Garc a, I. L., Salvanes, K. G., and Tominey, E. (2021). Intergenerational Mobility and the Timing of Parental Income. Journal of Political Economy, 129(3):757 788. Chetty, R., Hendren, N., Kline, P., and Saez, E. (2014). Where is the land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(4):1553 1623. Cholli, N. and Durlauf, S. (2022). Intergenerational Mobility. NBER Working Paper Series 29760, National Bureau of Economic Rsearch. Coleman, J. S., Campbell, E. Q., Hobson, C. J., McPartland, J., Mood, A. M., Weinfeld, F. D., and York, R. L. (1966). Equality of Educational Opportunity. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC. Currie, J. and Moretti, E. (2003). Mother’s Education and the Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital: Evidence from College Openings. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4):1495 1532. Deolalikar, A. B. (1993). Gender Differences in the Returns to Schooling and in School Enrollment Rates in Indonesia. Journal of Human Resources, 28(4):899 932. Du o, E. (2001). Schooling and Labor Market Consequences of School Construction in Indonesia: Evidence from an Unusual Policy Experiment. American Economic Review, 91(4):795 813. Du o, E. (2004). The medium run effects of educational expansion: evidence from a large school construction program in Indonesia. Journal of Development Economics, 74(1):163 197. Emran, M. S., Jiang, H., and Shilpi, F. (2021). Is Gender Destiny? Gender Bias and Intergenerational Educational Mobility in India. GLO Discussion Paper Series 807, Global Labor Organization (GLO). Emran, M. S. and Shilpi, F. (2011). Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Rural Economy: Evidence from Nepal and Vietnam. Journal of Human Resources, 46(2):427 458. Emran, M. S. and Shilpi, F. (2015). Gender, Geography, and Generations: Intergenerational Educational Mobility in Post-Reform India. World Development, 72:362 380. Emran, M. S. and Shilpi, F. (2021). Economic approach to intergenerational mobility: Measures, methods, and challenges in developing countries. In Iversen, V., Krishna, A., and Sen, K., editors, Social mobility in developing countries: Concepts, methods, and determinants. Oxford University Press. Filmer, D. (2007). If you build it, will they come? School availability and school enrolment in 21 poor countries. Journal of Development Studies, 43(5):901 928. Hanushek, E. A. (2002). Publicly provided education. In Auerbach, A. J. and Feldstein, M., editors, Handbook of Public Economics, volume 4, chapter 30, pages 2045 2141. Elsevier. Heckman, J. and Mosso, S. (2014). The Economics of Human Development and Social Mobility. Annual Review of Economics, 6(1):689 733. Heneveld, W. (1979). Indonesian education in the seventies: Problems of rapid growth. Southeast Asian A airs, pages 142 154. Hertz, T., Jayasundera, T., Piraino, P., Selcuk, S., Smith, N., and Verashchagina, A. (2008). The Inheritance of Educational Inequality: International Comparisons and Fifty-Year Trends. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 7(2):1 48. Hilger, N. G. (2015). The great escape: Intergenerational mobility in the united states since 1940. Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research. Iversen, V., Krishna, A., and Sen, K. (2019). Beyond poverty escapes − social mobility in developing countries: A review article. World Bank Research Observer, 34(2):239 273. Jayachandran, S. (2015). The Roots of Gender Inequality in Developing Countries. Annual Review of Economics, 7(1):63 88. Jung, D., Bharati, T., and Chin, S. (2021). Does Education Affect Time Preference? Evidence from Indonesia. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 69(4):1451 1499. Khanna, G. (2023). Large-scale education reform in general equilibrium: Regression discontinuity evidence from india. Journal of Political Economy. Lockheed, M. E., Verspoor, A. M., et al. (1991). Improving primary education in developing countries. Oxford University Press for World Bank. Lou, J. and Li, J. (2022). Export expansion and intergenerational education mobility: Evidence from china. China Economic Review, 73:101797. Maasoumi, E., Wang, L., and Zhang, D. (2022). Generalized intergenerational mobility regressions. Working paper, Emory University. Maccini, S. and Yang, D. (2009). Under the weather: Health, schooling, and economic consequences of early-life rainfall. American Economic Review, 99(3):1006 26. Martinez-Bravo, M. (2017). The Local Political Economy Effects of School Construction in Indonesia. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 9(2):256 289. Mazumder, B. (2005). Fortunate Sons: New Estimates of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States Using Social Security Earnings Data. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(2):235 255. Mazumder, B., Rosales-Rueda, M., and Triyana, M. (2019). Intergenerational Human Capital Spillovers: Indonesia’s School Construction and Its E ects on the Next Generation. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 109:243 249. Mogstad, M. and Torsvik, G. (2021). Family Background, Neighborhoods and Intergenerational Mobility. NBER Working Papers 28874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Neidhofer, G., Serrano, J., and Gasparini, L. (2018). Educational inequality and intergenerational mobility in Latin America: A new database. Journal of Development Economics, 134(C):329 349. Neilson, C. and Zimmerman, S. (2014). The effect of school construction on test scores, school enrollment, and home prices. Journal of Public Economics, 120:18 31. Nicoletti, C. and Francesconi, M. (2006). Intergenerational mobility and sample selection in short panels. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21(8):1265 1293. Orazem, P. F. and King, E. M. (2008). Schooling in Developing Countries: The Roles of Supply, Demand and Government Policy. In Schultz, T. P. and Strauss, J. A., editors, Handbook of Development Economics, volume 4, chapter 55, pages 3475 3559. Elsevier. Parman, J. (2011). American Mobility and the Expansion of Public Education. The Journal of Economic History, 71(1):105 132. Pekkarinen, T., Pekkala, S., and Uusitalo, R. (2009). School tracking and intergenerational income mobility: Evidence from the nnish comprehensive school reform. Journal of Public Economics, 93(7):965 973. Pesaresia, M., Ehrlicha, D., Ferria, S., Florczyka, A., Freirea, S., M., F. H., Halkiaa, A., Juleaa, M., Kempera, T., and Soillea, P. (2015). Gloabl Human Settlement Snalysis for Disaster Risk Reduction. 36th International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment; International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ISPRS), pages 837 843. Pfe er, F. T. and Hertel, F. R. (2015). How has educational expansion shaped social mobility trends in the united states? Social Forces, 94(1):143 180. Pitt, M. M., Rosenzweig, M. R., and Gibbons, D. M. (1993). The determinants and consequences of the placement of government programs in indonesia. The World Bank Economic Review, 7(3):319 348. Salvanes, K. (2023). What are the Drivers Intergenerational Mobility? The Role of Family, Neighborhood, Education, and Social Class: A Review of Bukodi and Goldthorpe’s Social Mobility and Education in Britain. Journal of Economic Literature. Forthcoming. Scott, G. L. (1985). Indonesian Women and Development. Technical report. Solon, G. (1992). Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States. American Economic Review, 82(3):393 408. Solon, G. (1999). Intergenerational mobility in the labor market. In Ashenfelter, O. and Card, D., editors, Handbook of Labor Economics, volume 3 of Handbook of Labor Economics, pages 1761 1800. Elsevier. Tilak, J. (1993). East Asia. In Hiil, A. and King, E., editors, Women’s Education in Developing Countries: Barriers, Bene ts, and Policies, chapter 7, pages 247 279. World Bank. Torche, F. (2013). How do we characteristically measure and analyze intergenerational mobility. Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality. Torche, F. (2015). Intergenerational Mobility and Equality of Opportunity. European Journal of Sociology, 56(3):343 371. Torche, F. (2019). Educational mobility in developing countries. WIDER Working Paper Series 2019-88. UIS (2022). Out-of-school rate (1 year before primary, primary education, lower secondary education, upper secondary education). Technical report, Montreal: UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Vella, F. and Karmel, T. (1999). Evaluating the Impact of Educational Expansion on the Occupational Status of Youth. Australian Economic Papers, 38(3):310 327. World Bank (2006). World development report 2006: Equity and development. The World Bank. World Bank (2018). World Development Report 2018: Learning to Realize Education’s Promise. Number 28340 in World Bank Publications - Books. The World Bank Group. Yu, Y., Fan, Y., and Yi, J. (2020). The One-Child Policy Ampli es Economic Inequality across Generations in China. IZA Discussion Papers 13617, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).