Papa, Javier and et., al. (2016): Forecasting Trade Deflators In Ireland. Published in: Ireland's Department of Finance - Technical Notes Series 12/2016 (December 2016)
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Abstract
This technical note provides an overview and rationale for recently developed forecast models for Irish export and import prices (trade deflators) in both Merchandise Goods and Services. These forecasts constitute a significant component of the GDP Deflator forecast used in the Department of Finance’s overall macroeconomic forecast, produced for the annual Budget and the Stability Programme Updates. New forecasting models for export and import prices were required due to recent revisions (July 2016) to the Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) National Income and Expenditure (NIE) data series. Based on the revised NIE quarterly data for the past 16 years (2000:Q1 – 2016:Q2), new short term forecasts of the trade deflators for Ireland over the period 2016:Q3- 2017:Q4 are presented at the end of this note. The main results show that trade deflator forecasts presented here should be able to predict future export and import prices with a fair degree of accuracy (i.e. within one standard error bands). However, the forecasts quality is conditional on the absence of major turning points in the series, in particular for the Services trade deflators.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
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Original Title: | Forecasting Trade Deflators In Ireland |
English Title: | Forecasting Trade Deflators In Ireland |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Trade; Deflators, Forecasting, Ireland |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation |
Item ID: | 116754 |
Depositing User: | Dr Javier Papa |
Date Deposited: | 22 Mar 2023 07:30 |
Last Modified: | 22 Mar 2023 07:30 |
References: | S. Byrne and M. O’Brien (2015), “The Changing Nature of Irish Exports: Context, Causes and Consequences”, Quarterly Bulletin 02 / April 15, Central Bank of Ireland. Campa, J. M. and Goldberg, L.S., (2005) “Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices”. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4): 679–690. Kenny, G. and McGettigan D., (1996) “Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Irish Import Prices”. Central Bank of Ireland Technical Paper, 6/RT/96. Doyle, E., (2004) “Exchange rate pass-through in a small open economy: the Anglo-Irish case”. Applied Economics, 2004, 36, 443–455 Marazzi, M., Sheets, N., and Vigfusson, R., and Faust, J., Gagnon, J., Marquez, J., Martin R., Reeve, T., and Rogers J. (2005) “Exchange Rate Pass-through to U.S. Import Prices: Some New Evidence. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Papers, Number 833 |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/116754 |