Graefe, Andreas and Armstrong, J. Scott (2008): Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Ability to Handle Issues.
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Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to forecast election outcomes. Our model, named PollyIssues, provides a forecast of the winner of the popular vote in U.S. Presidential Elections based on the voters’ overall perception of which candidate will do the best job in handle the issues facing the country. The PollyIssues correctly picked the winner for the last ten elections from 1972 to 2008 and provided an idea of the margin of victory. In predicting the two-party vote percentages for the last three elections from 2000 to 2008, its out-of-sample forecasts outperformed those derived from well-established econometric models.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Ability to Handle Issues|
|Keywords:||forecasting methods, regression models, index method, experience tables, unit weighting, accuracy, in-sample, out-of-sample|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling
D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D78 - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
|Depositing User:||Andreas Graefe|
|Date Deposited:||24. Nov 2008 00:28|
|Last Modified:||19. Jan 2015 21:14|
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Available Versions of this Item
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies. (deposited 05. Aug 2008 06:08)
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies. (deposited 04. Sep 2008 07:39)
Forecasting elections from voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle issues. (deposited 24. Mar 2012 23:48)
- Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Ability to Handle Issues. (deposited 24. Nov 2008 00:28) [Currently Displayed]
- Forecasting elections from voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle issues. (deposited 24. Mar 2012 23:48)
- Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies. (deposited 04. Sep 2008 07:39)