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Theorie der kapitalismusbedingten Finanzkrisen - Tractatus logico oeconomicus

Glötzl, Erhard (2023): Theorie der kapitalismusbedingten Finanzkrisen - Tractatus logico oeconomicus.

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3 Tractatus Deutsch Word REPEC Version 2 PDF.pdf

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1. the real economy does not grow exponentially in mature economies, but only approximately linearly. The reasons for this are: - the increasing saturation tendency of demand because of increasingly fulfilled basic needs and increasing inequality of distribution, - declining rates of investment in productive capital (because of saturation and because of the possibility of investing in non-productive financial capital), and - a declining capital efficiency. 2. capital assets, on the other hand, lead to positive feedbacks via capital incomes and thus to the approximately exponential growth of capital assets and capital incomes. Capital income grows at the expense of labor income. In particular, the sum of debts and credits also grows approximately exponentially, because creditors have both the interest and the power to enforce this growth of the sum of credits and debts in a money economy. The possibility of expanding consumer credit to the state and to private individuals also plays an important role. These developments are reinforced by political-economic-institutional power relations. 3. Ultimately, however, because of their exponential growth, in contrast to the merely linear growth of the real economy, the creditors' credit balances lose their real-economy coverage and thus their intrinsic value. As a result, the economy as a whole is bankrupt, as it were, like an individual company that cannot service its debts. In a crisis triggered by this, debts and credit balances are partially reset. 4. In order to prevent an economic system with positive feedbacks from capital incomes from becoming unstable, negative feedbacks through capital taxes, a productivity-oriented wage policy and a regulation of power relations to such an extent that capital incomes do not grow faster than GDP are necessary above all.

Note: When analyzing crises, one must generally distinguish between 3 temporal phases:

1. the emergence of the crisis and its root causes 2. the triggering of the crisis 3. the course of the crisis.

In general, in the literature on the 2008 financial crisis, the analysis of the 2nd phase (triggering mechanisms) and the 3rd phase (course of events) predominates. However, in order to be able to fundamentally avoid crises, an understanding of the 1st phase in particular is necessary. This tractatus is therefore mainly concerned with the analysis of the deeper causes for the emergence of economic financial crises and basic principles on how the emergence of such crises is fundamentally avoidable.

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