Demokratiets vilkårlighed: En analyse af forekomsten af valgparadokser ved tre folketingsvalg

Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter and Duminski, Emily and Horndrup, Søren Nikolai (2023): Demokratiets vilkårlighed: En analyse af forekomsten af valgparadokser ved tre folketingsvalg. Forthcoming in: Økonimi & Politik , Vol. 2023, No. 4 (2023)

Abstract

English: In a democratic system the preferences of individual voters may be aggregated into a collective preference in an infinite number of different ways following which a specific rule will allocate the total number of seats between political parties. If the method produces results that diverge from the underlying preferences of the voters, so-called voting paradoxes may occur. Such are well-known from first-past-the-post/plurality elections (e.g., US and British elections) but it is generally overlooked that such phenomena may also occur under proportional representation. By using data from the Danish National Election Surveys made in connection with the parliamentary elections of 2007, 2011 and 2015 we analyze the possible empirical occurrence of four voting paradoxes identified in social choice theory. We demonstrate that all four voting paradoxes occur empirically, thereby questioning the extent to which the outcomes of parliamentary elections may be seen as being an expression of a meaningful reflection of a ‘will of the people’.

Danish: I et demokratisk system kan vælgerpræferencer aggregeres til en samlet kollektiv præference på et utal af forskellige måder, hvorefter en specifik aggregeringsmetode fordeler det samlede antal mandater mellem partierne. Hvis metoden producerer resultater, som divergerer fra vælgernes underliggende præferencer, opstår der såkaldte valgparadokser. De kendes fra flertalsvalgsystemer (f.eks. amerikanske og britiske valg), men det er generelt overset, at de også kan forekomme under forholdstalsvalg. Ved brug af data fra valgundersøgelserne i.f.m. folketingsvalgene 2007, 2011 og 2015 analyseres den mulige empiriske forekomst af fire teoretisk udledte valgparadokser fra social choice teori. Vi viser, at alle fire valgparadokser forekommer empirisk. Dermed sættes der spørgsmålstegn ved, i hvilket omfang folketingsvalgs udfald kan udlægges som en afspejling af folkets vilje.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The arbitrariness of democracy: An analysis of the occurrence of voting paradoxes in three Danish parliamentary elections
• Language: Danish
• Keywords: Elections; voting paradoxes; Condorcet; Borda
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making; D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D71 - Social Choice ; Clubs ; Committees ; Associations; D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

References

Arrow, Kenneth J. (1963 [1951]). Social choice and individual values. 2. udg., New Haven: Yale University Press.

Feld, Scott L. og Bernard Grofman (1992). "Who's afraid of the big bad cycle? Evidence from 36 elections", Journal of Theoretical Politics 4 (2): 231-237.

Felsenthal, Dan S. og Nicholas R. Miller (2015). "What to do about election inversions under proportional representation?", Representation: Journal of Representative Democracy 51 (2): 173-186.

Gehrlein, William V. (2006). Condorcet's paradox. Berlin: Springer.

Gehrlein, William V. og Dominique Lepelley (2011). Voting paradoxes and group coherence. Berlin: Springer.

Green, Donald P. og Ian Shapiro (1994). Pathologies of rational choice: A critique of applications in political science. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Hansen, Kasper Møller og Rune Stubager (2016). Den danske valgundersøgelse 2015 - The Danish National Election Study 2015. København: Center for Valg og Partier, Institut for Statskundskab, Københavns Universitet.

Jones, Bradford, Benjamin Radcliff, Charles S. Taber og Richard J. Timpone (1995). "Condorcet winners and the Paradox of Voting: Probability calculations for weak preference orders", American Political Science Review 89 (1): 137-144.

Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter (1999). "Demokrati, magt og kollektive valgs rationalitet" i Uffe Jakobsen og Morten Kelstrup, red., Demokrati og demokratisering: Begreber og teorier. København: Politiske Studier, pp. 238-282.

Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter (2008). "Voting paradoxes under proportional representation: Evidence from eight Danish elections", Scandinavian Political Studies 31 (3): 242-267.

Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter (2013). "Election inversions, coalitions and proportional representation: Examples of voting paradoxes in Danish government formations", Scandinavian Political Studies 36 (2): 121-136.

Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter (2014a). "Empirical social choice: An introduction", Public Choice 158 (3-4): 297-310.

Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter (2014b). "Picking a loser? A social choice perspective on the Danish government formation of 1975", Public Choice 158 (3-4): 483-497.

Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter (2018). "Trump, Condorcet and Borda: Voting paradoxes in the 2016 Republican presidential primaries", European Journal of Political Economy 55 : 29-35.

Mackie, Gerry (2003). Democracy defended. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Miller, Nicholas R. (2012). "Election inversions by the U.S. Electoral College" i Dan S. Felsenthal og Moshé Machover, red., Electoral systems: Paradoxes, assumptions and procedures, Studies in Choice and Welfare. Berlin: Springer, pp. 93-127.

Nurmi, Hannu (1987). Comparing voting systems. Dordrecht: Reidel.

Riker, William H. (1982). Liberalism against populism: A confrontation between the theory of democracy and the theory of social choice. San Francisco: W.H. Freeman.

Riker, William H. (1986). The art of political manipulation. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Timpone, Richard J. og Charles S. Taber (1998). "Simulation: Analytic and algorithmic analyses of Condorcet's Paradox - variations on a classical theme", Social Science Computer Review 16 (1): 72-95.

Van Deemen, Adrian M. A. (1993). "Paradoxes of voting in list systems of proportional representation", Electoral Studies 12 (3): 234-241.

Van Deemen, Adrian M. A. (2014). "On the empirical relevance of Condorcet's paradox", Public Choice 158 (3): 311-330.

Van Deemen, Adrian M. A. og Noël P. Vergunst (1998). "Empirical evidence of paradoxes of voting in Dutch elections", Public Choice 97 (3): 475-490.