Evolución de la pobreza en las comunidades de Bolivia entre 2012 y 2022: Un enfoque de machine learning y teledetección

Bolivar, Osmar (2023): Evolución de la pobreza en las comunidades de Bolivia entre 2012 y 2022: Un enfoque de machine learning y teledetección.

Abstract

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo pronosticar la incidencia de pobreza a nivel comunitario en Bolivia para el año 2022 empleando algoritmos de machine learning y teledetección, y contrastar estos pronósticos con los datos de 2012. Se procesaron datos censales de 2012 para crear un indicador de pobreza basado en Necesidades Básicas Insatisfechas (NBI) a nivel de comunidades y se seleccionaron 953 de estas comunidades como unidades de análisis. La generación de variables geoespaciales, el entrenamiento y validación de algoritmos de machine learning, y la posterior aplicación de estos modelos revelaron una disminución general de la pobreza, con aproximadamente el 50% de las comunidades proyectadas por debajo del umbral del 42,5% en 2022, indicando mejoras significativas desde 2012. Se observó una reducción diferencial de la pobreza, con un impacto más pronunciado en las comunidades con menores niveles de pobreza iniciales. Se vislumbraron disparidades regionales, con tasas de pobreza más bajas en áreas urbanas, subrayando la necesidad de abordar las desigualdades regionales. Además, se evidencio la eficacia de la metodología planteada en este estudio en comparación con investigaciones similares, resaltando la utilidad de esta metodología para predecir la pobreza a nivel comunitario.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Evolution of poverty in Bolivian communities between 2012 and 2022: A machine learning and remote sensing approach
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: pobreza; machine learning; remote sensing
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty > I32 - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O3 - Innovation ; Research and Development ; Technological Change ; Intellectual Property Rights > O31 - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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