Trade Between WAEMU And EU Countries Ante-Brexit : Lessons From A Gravity Model

COULIBALY, Niénéyéri Mamadou (2023): Trade Between WAEMU And EU Countries Ante-Brexit : Lessons From A Gravity Model. Published in: African Scientific Journal , Vol. 03, No. 20 (20 November 2023): pp. 1099-1119.

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyse trade between the member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and those of the European Union (EU) pre-Brexit over the period 2014-2019. It estimates a gravity model based on panel data. Three econometric estimation techniques are used : the WITHIN method, the Generalised Least Squares (GLS) method and the Hausman and Taylor (HT) method. These different estimation techniques are then compared to determine which is the most appropriate. The data used are secondary data from several sources : the International Monetary Fund (World Economic Outlook), the World Bank (World Development Indicators), the United Nations (UN Comtrade) and the ephemeride website. The results show that trade between these two groups of countries is positively and significantly influenced by income in WAEMU countries, infrastructure in WAEMU countries and population in EU countries. They also show that when an EU country is landlocked, its trade flows with WAEMU countries are reduced, while at the same time, the landlocked status of a WAEMU country does not affect its trade with EU countries. Variables such as the bilateral real exchange rate, distance, language and colonial links were found to be insignificant.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Trade, trade flows, gravity model, EU, WAEMU and Brexit
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C13 - Estimation: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F10 - General; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration

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