On Efficient Utilization of Egypt's Energy Resources: Oil and Natural Gas

Selim, Tarek (2007): On Efficient Utilization of Egypt's Energy Resources: Oil and Natural Gas. Published in: Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, Working Paper Series No. 117 (January 2007)

Abstract

The focus of this research is analysis and forecast for Egypt's energy resources of oil and natural gas. Running a risk of an oil shortage in the near term, Egypt's strategic energy resource should shift from oil to natural gas. Given an international energy market with high price variations for oil and more stable regional prices for natural gas, an efficient production schedule for Egypt's oil and gas resources based on domestic energy consumption and subsequent export/import forecasts has been derived. The methodology utilized is based on optimal resource extraction rates whereby dynamic efficient production schedules conditional on the constraint of sustainable growth rates in consumption (Hartwick's rule) dictate future energy requirements. Detailed strategies for Egypt's energy sector have been proposed, accompanied by their expected impact on the economy, with the following major guidelines: (1) policy shift from oil to gas as the strategic resource, (2) reduction/removal of oil subsidy, (3) adoption of renewable resource technology, and (4) future investment requirements.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Egypt, energy policy, oil and natural gas, petroleum, energy prices, energy forecast, energy demand-supply equilibrium, energy consumption, energy production, energy imports, energy exports, energy trade, sustainable energy usage, energy strategy, Hartwick model, dynamic optimization path
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C13 - Estimation: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F18 - Trade and Environment; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q31 - Demand and Supply ; Prices; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q32 - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q35 - Hydrocarbon Resources; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q3 - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation > Q38 - Government Policy; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q40 - General; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q47 - Energy Forecasting

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