The effect of rental prices on student mobility

Gökçe, Merve Betül (2024): The effect of rental prices on student mobility.

Abstract

Between 2020 and 2023, Turkey experienced a significant rise in housing prices, with inflation-adjusted rents more than doubled in some regions, marking it a standout case of global house price inflation. This study exploits the regional and temporal variation in rental prices as a natural experiment. It employs a difference-in-differences framework to explore the impact on students’ educational mobility within a developing country, where annually, one million high school graduates face the critical decision to stay local or relocate to another province for university education. Using a comprehensive panel dataset covering all higher education programs in Turkey, combined with rental price indices for all 81 provinces, the analysis reveals that rising rental prices significantly reduce inter-provincial student mobility. A 100 TL increase in rental prices (adjusted to 2023 levels) reduces the openness rate (out-of-province enrollment) of public university programs by 3.5 percentage points (a 4.4% relative decline). The negative effect is concentrated in programs with lower entry scores, where the openness rate declines by 18%, while high-entry-score programs remain unaffected. This heterogeneity across program competitiveness suggests that rising accommodation expenses disproportionately restrict the geographical mobility of students with lower academic performance. The analysis of private university programs further supports this conclusion, showing that rental price increases significantly reduce mobility in tuition-based programs while leaving full-scholarship programs, typically attended by high-scoring students, unaffected.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Student mobility; educational migration; rental price; housing shock; accommodation cost.
• Subjects: I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I2 - Education and Research Institutions > I23 - Higher Education ; Research Institutions; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility ; Immigrant Workers; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R3 - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location > R31 - Housing Supply and Markets

References

Abbott, A., & Silles, M. (2016). Determinants of International Student Migration. The World Economy, 39(5), 621–635. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12319

Bacci, S., & Bertaccini, B. (2021). Assessment of the University Reputation Through the Analysis of the Student Mobility. Social Indicators Research, 156(2–3), 363–388. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-020-02322-x

Ballarino, G., Colombo, S., Panichella, N., & Piolatto, M. (2022). Human capital dynamics: The geographical mobility of high-school graduates towards university in Italy. Regional Studies, 56(6), 921–939. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2021.1912723

Beine, M., Noël, R., & Ragot, L. (2014). Determinants of the international mobility of students. Economics of Education Review, 41, 40–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2014.03.003

Belfield, C., & Morris, Z. (1999). Regional Migration to and from Higher Education Institutions: Scale, Determinants and Outcomes. Higher Education Quarterly, 53(3), 240–263. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2273.00129

Boeing, G., Wegmann, J., & Jiao, J. (2023). Rental Housing Spot Markets: How Online Information Exchanges Can Supplement Transacted-Rents Data. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 43(3), 525–537. https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X20904435

Bratti, M., & Verzillo, S. (2019). The ‘gravity’ of quality: Research quality and the attractiveness of universities in Italy. Regional Studies, 53(10), 1385–1396. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2019.1566701

Bultseva, M. A., & Lebedeva, N. M. (2021). The role of intercultural competence, in the relationship between intercultural experiences and creativity among students. International Journal of Intercultural Relations, 82, 256–264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijintrel.2021.04.010

Callender, C., & Jackson, J. (2008). Does the fear of debt constrain choice of university and subject of study? Studies in Higher Education, 33(4), 405–429. https://doi.org/10.1080/03075070802211802

Cattaneo, M., Malighetti, P., Meoli, M., & Paleari, S. (2017). University spatial competition for students: The Italian case. Regional Studies, 51(5), 750–764. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2015.1135240

Chang, M. J. (2001). The Positive Educational Effects of Racial Diversity on Campus. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED456198

Ciriaci, D. (2014). Does University Quality Influence the Interregional Mobility of Students and Graduates? The Case of Italy. Regional Studies, 48(10), 1592–1608. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2013.821569

Cui, C., Yu, C., Chen, N., & Deng, X. (2024). Moving into higher education: An examination of student mobility under the Independent Freshman Admission Program in China. Population, Space and Place, e2812. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2812

Cullinan, J., & Duggan, J. (2016). A School-Level Gravity Model of Student Migration Flows to Higher Education Institutions. Spatial Economic Analysis, 11(3), 294–314. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2016.1177195

D’Agostino, A., Ghellini, G., & Longobardi, S. (2019). Out-migration of university enrolment: The mobility behaviour of Italian students. International Journal of Manpower, 40(1), 56–72. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJM-07-2017-0169

Dotti, N. F., Fratesi, U., Lenzi, C., & Percoco, M. (2014). Local labour market conditions and the spatial mobility of science and technology university students: Evidence from Italy. Review of Regional Research, 34(2), 119–137.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10037-014-0088-y

Dotzel, K. R. (2017). Do natural amenities influence undergraduate student migration decisions? The Annals of Regional Science, 59(3), 677–705. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-016-0765-6

Dwenger, N., Storck, J., & Wrohlich, K. (2012). Do tuition fees affect the mobility of university applicants? Evidence from a natural experiment. Economics of Education Review, 31(1), 155–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2011.10.004

Eşidir, Y. (2017). Yükseköğretimde Barınma Politikalarının Değerlendirilmesi ve Türkiye için Öneriler. Kalkınma Bakanlığı. https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Yuksek_Ogretimde_Barinma_Poltikalarinin_Degerlendirilmesi_ve_Turkiye_Icin_Oneriler-Yusuf_Esidir.pdf

Faggian, A., & Franklin, R. S. (2014). Human Capital Redistribution in the USA: The Migration of the College-bound. Spatial Economic Analysis, 9(4), 376–395. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2014.961536

Filiz, Z., & Çemrek, F. (2007). Üniversite Öğrencilerinin Barınma Sorunlarının Uygunluk Analizi ile İncelenmesi. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(2), Article 2.

Flannery, D., & Cullinan, J. (2014). Where they go, what they do and why it matters: The importance of geographic accessibility and social class for decisions relating to higher education institution type, degree level and field of study. Applied Economics, 46(24), 2952–2965. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2014.916392

Fratesi, U., & Percoco, M. (2014). Selective Migration, Regional Growth and Convergence: Evidence from Italy. Regional Studies, 48(10), 1650–1668. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2013.843162

Fratesi, U., & Riggi, M. R. (2007). Does Migration Reduce Regional Disparities? The Role of Skill-Selective Flows. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 19(1), 78–102. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-940X.2007.00125.x

Gareis, P., & Broekel, T. (2022). The Spatial Patterns of Student Mobility Before, During and After the Bologna Process in Germany. Tijdschrift Voor Economische En Sociale Geografie, 113(3), 290–309. https://doi.org/10.1111/tesg.12507

Genova, V. G., & Boscaino, G. (2024). Chain migration and student mobility in Sicily. Higher Education. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-024-01336-5

Giambona, F., Porcu, M., & Sulis, I. (2017). Students Mobility: Assessing the Determinants of Attractiveness Across Competing Territorial Areas. Social Indicators Research, 133(3), 1105–1132. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-016-1407-1

Gurin, P., Dey, E., Hurtado, S., & Gurin, G. (2009). Diversity and Higher Education: Theory and Impact on Educational Outcomes. Harvard Educational Review, 72(3), 330–367. https://doi.org/10.17763/haer.72.3.01151786u134n051

Hepsiemlak (2024). Accessed November 21, 2024. https://www.hepsiemlak.com/

Hoever, I. J., van Knippenberg, D., van Ginkel, W. P., & Barkema, H. G. (2012). Fostering team creativity: Perspective taking as key to unlocking diversity’s potential. The Journal of Applied Psychology, 97(5), 982–996. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0029159

Hübner, M. (2012). Do tuition fees affect enrollment behavior? Evidence from a ‘natural experiment’ in Germany. Economics of Education Review, 31(6), 949–960. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2012.06.006

IPA (2024). İstanbul’da Öğrenci Yaşam Maliyeti Araştırması 2024/2025. Available at: https://ipa.istanbul/yayinlarimiz/genel/istanbulda-ogrenci-yasam-maliyeti-arastirmasi-2024-2025/ (Accessed: 28 October 2024).

Ishitani, T. T. (2011). The Determinants of Out-Migration Among In-State College Students in the United States. Research in Higher Education, 52(2), 107–122.

Jha, S., & Kumar, S. (2017). Socio-economic Determinants of Inter-state Student Mobility in India: Implications for Higher Education Policy. Higher Education for the Future, 4(2), 166–185. https://doi.org/10.1177/2347631117708069

Jones, W. A. (2013). The Relationship Between Student Body Racial Composition and the Normative Environment Toward Diversity at Community Colleges. Community College Review, 41(3), 249–265. https://doi.org/10.1177/0091552113497090

Kanbur, R., & Rapoport, H. (2005). Migration selectivity and the evolution of spatial inequality. Journal of Economic Geography, 5(1), 43–57.

Knight Frank (2023). Global House Price Index. Knight Frank LLP. Accessed November 21, 2024. https://content.knightfrank.com/research/84/documents/en/global-house-price-index-q2-2023-10572.pdf

Lourenço, D., & Sá, C. (2019). Spatial competition for students: What does (not) matter? The Annals of Regional Science, 63(1), 147–162. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-019-00930-1

Mchugh, R., & Morgan, J. N. (1984). The determinants of interstate student migration: A place-to-place analysis. Economics of Education Review, 3(4), 269–278. https://doi.org/10.1016/0272-7757(84)90045-1

Milem, J. (2003). The Educational Benefits of Diversity: Evidence from Multiple Sectors. In Compelling Interest (pp. 126–169). Stanford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9780804764537-009

Ministry of Education – Republic of Türkiye (2023). National Education Statistics, Formal Education 2022/’23. Accessed November 21, 2024. https://sgb.meb.gov.tr/www/icerik_goruntule.php?KNO=508

Ministry of Trade - Republic of Türkiye (2024). Elektronik İlan Doğrulama Sistemi. Accessed November 21, 2024. https://ticaret.gov.tr/kurumsal-haberler/elektronik-ilan-dogrulama-sistemi-eids-yetki-dogrulama-uygulamasi-hayata-gecirildi

Mixon, F. G., & Hsing, Y. (1994a). College Student Migration and Human Capital Theory: A Research Note. Education Economics, 2(1), 65–73. https://doi.org/10.1080/09645299400000005

Mixon, F. G., & Hsing, Y. (1994b). The determinants of out-of-state enrollments in higher education: A tobit analysis. Economics of Education Review, 13(4), 329–335. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0272-7757(05)80056-1

Pelegrini, T., Sá, C., & França, M. T. A. (2023). Factors associated with the mobility of college students in Brazil: An analysis using a gravity model. Higher Education, 85(1), 203–223. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-022-00829-5

Pigini, C., & Staffolani, S. (2016). Beyond participation: Do the cost and quality of higher education shape the enrollment composition? The case of Italy. Higher Education, 71(1), 119–142. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-015-9892-8

Prakhov, I., & Bocharova, M. (2019). Socio-economic predictors of student mobility in Russia. Journal of Further and Higher Education, 43(10), 1331–1347. https://doi.org/10.1080/0309877X.2018.1483014

Prakhov, I., & Sergienko, D. (2020). Matching between students and universities: What are the sources of inequalities of access to higher education? European Journal of Education, 55(2), 261–274. https://doi.org/10.1111/ejed.12389

Psycharis, Y., Tselios, V., & Pantazis, P. (2019). Interregional student migration in Greece: Patterns and determinants: Revue d’Économie Régionale & Urbaine, Octobre(4), 781–812. https://doi.org/10.3917/reru.194.0781

Raab, J., Knoben, J., Aufurth, L., & Kaashoek, B. (2018). Going the distance: The effects of university – secondary school collaboration on student migration. Papers in Regional Science, 97(4), 1131–1150. https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12288

Rizzi, L., Grassetti, L., & Attanasio, M. (2021). Moving from North to North: How are the students’ university flows? Genus, 77(1), 8. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-021-00116-8

Rolfe, V., & Yang Hansen, K. (2020). Family Socioeconomic and Migration Background Mitigating Educational-Relevant Inequalities. In T. Nilsen, A. Stancel-Piątak, & J.-E. Gustafsson (Eds.), International Handbook of Comparative Large-Scale Studies in Education: Perspectives, Methods and Findings (pp. 1–34). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38298-8_50-1

Rothman, S., Lipset, S. M., & Nevitte, N. (2003). Does Enrollment Diversity Improve University Education? International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 15(1), 8–26. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/15.1.8

Sahibinden (2024). Emlak endeksi. Accessed November 21, 2024. https://www.sahibinden.com/emlak360/emlak-endeksi

Sá, C., Florax, R. J. G. M., & Rietveld, P. (2004). Determinants of the Regional Demand for Higher Education in The Netherlands: A Gravity Model Approach. Regional Studies, 38(4), 375–392. https://doi.org/10.1080/03434002000213905

Sá, C., Florax, R. J. G. M., & Rietveld, P. (2006). Does Accessibility to Higher Education Matter? Choice Behaviour of High School Graduates in the Netherlands. Spatial Economic Analysis, 1(2), 155–174. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421770601009791

Tuckman, H. P. (1970). Determinants of College Student Migration. Southern Economic Journal, 37(2), 184–189. https://doi.org/10.2307/1056128

Turkish Statistical Institute – TURKSTAT. (2024). Statistics by Theme. Inflation and Prices. Consumer Price Index. Statistical Tables and Dynamic Search. Accessed November 21, 2024. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?locale=tr

Türk, U. (2019). Socio-Economic Determinants of Student Mobility and Inequality of Access to Higher Education in Italy. Networks and Spatial Economics, 19(1), 125–148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11067-019-09445-w

Wakeling, P., & Jefferies, K. (2012). The effect of tuition fees on student mobility: The UK and Ireland as a natural experiment. British Educational Research Journal, 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/01411926.2012.658022

Wei, H. (2013). An empirical study on the determinants of international student mobility: A global perspective. Higher Education, 66(1), 105–122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-012-9593-5

Winters, J. V. (2012). Cohort crowding and nonresident college enrollment. Economics of Education Review, 31(3), 30–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2012.01.001

YÖK. (2022). Yükseköğretime Geçişte Öğrenci Hareketliliği. Yükseköğretim Kurumu. https://www.yok.gov.tr/Documents/Yayinlar/Yayinlarimiz/2022/yuksekogretime-geciste-ogrenci-hareketliligi.pdf

YÖK Lisans Atlası (2024). Yükseköğretim Program Atlası. Accessed November 21, 2024. https://yokatlas.yok.gov.tr/lisans-anasayfa.php.

Yurtlarburada (2024). İstanbul Özel Öğrenci Yurtları. Accessed November 21, 2024. https://www.yurtlarburada.com/sehirler/istanbul-ozel-ogrenci-yurtlari.

Zhou, J., & Chi-Man Hui, E. (2022). Housing prices, migration, and self-selection of migrants in China. Habitat International, 119, 102479. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2021.102479