On a Definition of Trend

Silva Lopes, Artur (2025): On a Definition of Trend.

Abstract

Several reasons explain the absence of a precise, complete and widely accepted definition of trend for economic time series, and the existence of two major disparate models is one of the most important. A recent operational proposal tried to overcome this difficulty resorting to a statistical test with good asymptotic properties against both those alternatives. However, this proposal may be criticized because it rests on a tool for inductive, not deductive, inference. Besides criticizing this recent definition, drawing heavily on previous ones, the paper provides a new proposal, more complete, containing several necessary but no sufficient condition(s).

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: trend; time series; macroeconomy; statistical testing
• Subjects: B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B4 - Economic Methodology > B41 - Economic Methodology; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C18 - Methodological Issues: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes

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