The day after the dollar

Gluschenko, Konstantin and Voronov, Yuri (2025): The day after the dollar.

Abstract

The international monetary system based on the US dollar as the world’s dominant reserve currency has become in recent years risky and unreliable tool of international financial relations. In addition, confidence in the dollar is falling worldwide. These reasons lead to a transformation of the international currency system, primarily aimed at getting rid of the dominance of the US dollar. This transformation is still at the very beginning and it is unclear where it will come. The purpose of this paper is to consider possible directions of the transformation. This is not an attempt at forecasting, but an analysis of potential scenarios with assessments of the feasibility of their implementation. We are discussing a range of possible paths for transforming the international monetary system. One end of the range is the creation of a single supranational currency based on the reformation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR). The other end is the disintegration of the single currency system, which is partly already underway. In between is a return to the gold standard and the displacement of the US dollar by renminbi. However, an unpredictable option due the digitalization of currencies is also possible.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: international monetary system supranational currency gold standard renminbi digital currencies
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F0 - General > F02 - International Economic Order and Integration; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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