Determinants of Economic Growth in a Least Developed Country: Time Series Analysis for Niger

Abdou Baoua, Mahamane Moutari and Ay, Ahmet (2022): Determinants of Economic Growth in a Least Developed Country: Time Series Analysis for Niger. Published in: International Social and Economic Research Student Congress No. 5 (April 2023): pp. 290-306.

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of economic growth in Niger by using data for the period of 1971-2018. According to the results of the Johansen co-integration test, there is long-term relationship between the variables and Capital formation, Trade openness, Labor force and Government expenditure have a positive impact on economic growth. However, the effect of inflation and Technology on economic growth is negative. According to the results of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), there is long-run causal relationship from capital formation, technology, trade openness, labor force, inflation and government expenditure to the economic growth. The results of cointegration and VECM emphasize that Capital formation, Trade openness, Labor force and Government expenditure are the longterm determinants of economic growth in Niger. Niger should reform the education, agriculture and industrial production regardless of natural resources. Nigerien economy needs to move towards agriculture and manufacturing sector, despite its dependence on uranium. We also suggested that a new "Five-Year Development Program" should implement projects that will stimulate the economy.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: determinants of economic growth, Niger, time series analysis
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E01 - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth ; Environmental Accounts; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O55 - Africa

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