Duration Structure of Unemployment Hazards and the Trend Unemployment Rate

Vîntu, Denis (2025): Duration Structure of Unemployment Hazards and the Trend Unemployment Rate.

Abstract

This paper investigates the duration structure of unemployment hazards and the trend unemployment rate using micro-level labor market data. We analyze how the probability of exiting unemployment varies over time and explore the implications for the natural rate of unemployment. The findings contribute to understanding unemployment dynamics and inform labor market policies.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Simultaneous equations model; Labor market equilibrium; Unemployment rate determination; Wage-setting equation; Price-setting equation; Beveridge curve; Job matching function; Phillips curve; Structural unemployment; Natural rate of unemployment; Labor supply and demand; Endogenous unemployment; Disequilibrium model; Employment dynamics; Wage-unemployment relationship; Aggregate labor market model; Multivariate system estimation; Identification problem; Reduced form equations; Equilibrium unemployment rate
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C30 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C31 - Cross-Sectional Models ; Spatial Models ; Treatment Effect Models ; Quantile Regressions ; Social Interaction Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J65 - Unemployment Insurance ; Severance Pay ; Plant Closings; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J68 - Public Policy

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