Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo (2006): A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia, 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019.
Download (352kB) | Preview
Abstract: This paper continues a research born in 1993 as a consequence of the growing concern regarding the escalation of violence in Colombia; its objective is to create an econometric model capable of forecasting the path of terrorist murder under different policy options and helping the country in the design of state policy drawing the lineaments for reaching the pacification of the country. I claim that the approach presented here is the only way of creating an econometric model for terrorist murder in Colombia. In the first part I use The Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series to estimate the cyclical component of murder, which is used later to construct a theoretically and statistically satisfying model to account for cyclically motivated terrorist murder in Colombia, 1950-2004. The variables that together account for eighty three percent of the variation in cyclical terrorist murder are the years of Colombia’s La Violencia period when the peasant self-defense movements appeared, the years of the so-called National Front political collusion between the two main establishment parties, the real trade balance, the size of Colombia’s military forces as a proxy for all armed forces (military, para-military, guerrilla, and drug-related) in the country, the unemployment rate, the number of students matriculated in all modalities and people displaced in the country. The forecasts for cyclical terrorist murder for 2003-2004 show the big dilemma facing the Colombian authorities: the strong reduction of displaced people from 212,000 in 2003 to 117,000 in 2004 boosted the cyclical terrorist murder in the countryside, erasing the initial results by president Uribe’s administration at controlling the intensity of the conflict and implying that any future policy at diminishing it should control the number of displaced people, one of the biggest problems facing Colombia today. The final section presents forecasts for 2005-2019 suggesting, that peace will be attained around year 2008 and, that the way, at this point to reach sustainable peace is through the continuation of the Democratic Security Policy and strong presidential leadership headed towards disarmament of all armed actors in the country combined with the implementing of political and social changes that will secure lasting peace before year 2019.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia, 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019|
|Keywords:||Colombia; Beveridge and Nelson; cyclical terrorist murder; democratic security policy; sustainable peace; permanent peace; lasting peace|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
|Depositing User:||GUSTAVO GOMEZ-SORZANO|
|Date Deposited:||06. Oct 2006|
|Last Modified:||18. Feb 2013 19:26|
Bejarano, Jesús Antonio. “Inseguridad, violencia y actividad económica.” Lecturas de Economía [Medellín, Colombia] (July-December 1997), pp. 7-24.
Bergquist, Charles W. “Violence in Colombia: The Contemporary Crisis in Historical Perspective. Latin American Silhouettes. Wilmington, DE, Scholarly Resources, Inc., 1992.
Bergquist, Charles, Ricardo Peñaranda, and Gonzalo Sánchez. “Violence in Colombia, 1990-2000: waging war and negotiating peace. Wilmington, DE, Scholarly Resources, Inc., 2001.
Box, G.E.P. and G.M. Jenkins. “Time series analysis: Forecasting and Control.” San Francisco Holden Day (revised edition 1976).
Brauer, Jurgen, Alejandro Gómez-Sorzano, and Sankara Sethuraman. “Decomposing Violence: Political Murder in Colombia, 1946-1999.” European Journal of Political Economy Vol. 20 (2004A) 447-461. Online at www.sciencedirect.com
Brauer, Jurgen, Gustavo A Gómez-Sorzano. “Homicide Cycles in Colombia, 1950-2002. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies Vol. 1- Issue 1 (2004B).
Brito, Dagobert L. and Michael D. Intriligator. “Narco-Traffic and Guerrilla Warfare: A New Symbiosis.” Defense Economics Vol.3 (1992), pp. 263-274.
Cárdenas, Mauricio. “Coffee exports, endogenous state policy and the business cycle”, Ph.D. dissertation, Economics. University of California, Berkeley, CA.1991.
Bushnell, David. The Making of Modern Colombia: A Nation in Spite of Itself. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1993.
Dinar, Ariel and Andrew Keck. “Private Irrigation Investment in Colombia: Effects of Violence, Macroeconomic Policy, and Environmental Conditions.“ Agricultural Economics Vol.16 No.1 (1997), pp. 1-15.
Giraldo, Javier. Colombia: The Genocidal Democracy. Monroe, ME: Common Courage Press, 1996.
Guerrero, Rodrigo. “Epidemiology of Violence in the Americas: The Case of Colombia,” pp. 95-100 in Shahid Jared Burki, Sri-Ram Aiyer, and Rudolf Homes (eds). Proceedings. Annual world Bank Conference on Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1996: Poverty and Inequality (Bogotá, Colombia). Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1998.
Jimeno, Myriam. “Violence and Social Life in Colombia. ” Critique of Anthropology Vol. 21 No. 3 (2001), pp 221-246.
Levitt, Steven and Rubio Mauricio. “Understanding Crime in Colombia and What Can Be Done About It.” Working Papers Series, Fedesarrollo (Bogotá, Colombia) No. 20 (2000).
Londoño, Juan Luis. “Violence, Psyche, and Social Capital,” pp. 71-82 in Shahid Jared Burki, Sri-Ram Aiyer, and Rudolf Hommes (eds). Proceedings. Annual World Bank Conference on Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1996: Poverty and Inequality (Bogotá, Colombia). Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1998.
Londoño, Juan Luis. “Income Distribution during the Structural Transformation: Colombia 1938-1988.” PhD thesis. Economics, Harvard University, (1990).
Nacla. “Report on the Americas.” Vol 35, No.1 (2001), pp. 24-27.
Richani, Nazih. “The Political Economy of violence: The War-System in Colombia.” Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs Vol. 39, No.2 (1997), pp. 37-81.
Restrepo, Jorge and Spagat, Michael. “The Colombian Conflict: Uribe’s First 17 Months.” Unpublished document (April 1st, 2004).
Rubio, Mauricio. “Perverse Social Capital – Some Evidence from Colombia.” Journal of Economic Issues Vol.31, No3 (September 1997), pp. 805-816.
Rubio, Mauricio. “Violence, Organized Crimes, and the Criminal Justice System in Colombia.” Journal of Economic Issues Vol.32, No. 2 (June 1998a), pp. 605-610.
Rubio, Mauricio. “Comment,” pp. 90-92 in Shahid Jared Burki, Sri-Ram Aiyer, and Rudolf Hommes (eds). Proceedings. Annual World Bank Conference on Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1996: Poverty and Inequality (Bogotá, Colombia). Washington, DC: The world Bank, 1998b.
Sambanis, Nicholas. “A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War.” Defense and Peace Economics Vol.13, No.3 (2002), pp. 215-243.
Sánchez, F and J. Núñez. “Determinantes del Crímen Violento en un País Altamente Violento: el caso de Colombia”, Los Andes University, Bogotá, Colombia, Manuscript, September 2000.
Stundenmund, A.H. Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide. Boston: Addison-Wesley, 2001.
Tovar Valencia, Alvaro. “El Conflicto Armado en Colombia –Marco Histórico General”. Revista de las Fuerzas Armadas, Bogotá, Colombia, Marzo de 1997.
Uprimny Yepes, Rodrigo. “Violence, Power, and Collective Action, a comparison between Bolivia and Colombia,” pp. 39-52 in Charles Bergquist, Ricardo Peñaranda, and Gónzalo Sánchez G (eds). Violence in Colombia 1999-2000: waging war and negotiating peace. Wilmington, DE: Scholarly Resources, INC, 2001.
Uribe Vélez, Alvaro. “Visión Colombia II centenario: 2019, propuesta para discussion, resúmen ejecutivo.” Colombian Presidency, National Planning Department 2005. Bogotá, Colombia. www.dnp.gov.co