Scenarios for sustainable peace in colombia by year 2019

Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo (2006): Scenarios for sustainable peace in colombia by year 2019.

Abstract

This paper presents the simulation results of the model of cyclical terrorist murder for Colombia (Gómez-Sorzano, 2005) on the purpose of doing sensitivity analysis to help the country in the design of a policy bringing sustainable peace before year 2019. The first part presents 11 scenarios 2005-2010. The final section shows 18 additional scenarios 2006-2019. According to them peace will be attained around year 2008 and sustainable peace will be granted before year 2019.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: cyclical terrorist murder; democratic security policy; sustainable peace
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes

References

Gómez-Sorzano, Gustavo A. 2005. “A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia, 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005- 2019.” Unpublished paper, presented at the 14th World Congress of Criminology, Jerry Lee Center of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, August.

Uribe Vélez, Alvaro. 2005. “Visión Colombia II centenario: 2019, propuesta para discussion, resúmen ejecutivo.” Colombian Presidency, National Planning Department (DNP). Bogotá, Colombia. www.dnp.gov.co