Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Scenarios for sustainable peace in colombia by year 2019

Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo (2006): Scenarios for sustainable peace in colombia by year 2019.

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This paper presents the simulation results of the model of cyclical terrorist murder for Colombia (Gómez-Sorzano, 2005) on the purpose of doing sensitivity analysis to help the country in the design of a policy bringing sustainable peace before year 2019. The first part presents 11 scenarios 2005-2010. The final section shows 18 additional scenarios 2006-2019. According to them peace will be attained around year 2008 and sustainable peace will be granted before year 2019.

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