Les effets stabilisants de la zone-cible du taux d’inflation

Dai, Meixing (1998): Les effets stabilisants de la zone-cible du taux d’inflation.

Abstract

Résumé: Une zone-cible du taux d’inflation comporte une borne supérieure et une borne inférieure clairement annoncées par les autorités monétaires. Ces dernières assurent la crédibilité de cette zone par des interventions ponctuelles sur les marchés financiers lorsque le taux d’inflation anticipé atteint la borne supérieure ou inférieure. Nous proposons dans ce papier un cadre théorique qui permet de démontrer que la zone-cible du taux d’inflation a des vertus stabilisantes : en stabilisant le taux d’inflation anticipé, elle stabilise le taux d’inflation réalisé et les autres variables macro-économiques.

Abstract: A target zone for inflation rate is studied in a macroeconomic model in this paper. In stabilizing the inflation rate expected by the financial markets, the monetary authority can stabilize the realized inflation rate and other nominal macro-economic variables. The super and the under limits of the inflation rate in a target zone are clearly announced by the monetary authority. To defend its credibility, the monetary authority has only to intervene occasionally when the expected inflation rate approaches its super or under limit. It is showed in our model that the target zone of inflation rate has some stabilizing effects.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The stabilising effects of inflation-targeting zone
• Language: French
• Keywords: Mots clés: zone-cible du taux d’inflation, politique monétaire, marché financier. Keywords: Inflation rate target zone, monetary policy, financial market
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

References

Avouyi-Dovi S., Laffargue J. P., 1992, Anticipations stabilisantes dans un système de serpent monétaire: théorie et application au système monétaire européen, Revue Economique, vol. 43, 1107-1128.

Barro Robert, 1979, Money and Price Level under the Gold Standard, The Economic Journal, 13-33.

Bartolini, L. and G.M. Bodnar, 1992, Target zones and forward rates in a model with repeated realignments, Journal of Monetary Economics; 30(3), December 1992, 373-408.

Beetsma, Roel M.W.J. and F. van der Ploeg, 1998, Macroeconomic stabilisation and intervention policy under an exchange rate band, Journal of International Money and Finance; 17(2), April 1998, 339-353.

Bernanke , Ben S., and Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997, Inflation Targeting : A New Framework for Monetary Policy ? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(2), pp. 97-116.

Bernanke , Ben S., Thomas Laubach, and Frederic S. Mishkin and Adam Posen, 1999, Inflation Targeting : Lessons from Internationa Experience, Pinceton : Princeton University Press.

Bertola, Giuseppe and Ricardo J. Caballero, 1992, Target zones and realignments, American Economic Review; 82(3), June 1992, 520-536.

Bruno, Michael; Fischer, Stanley, 1990, Seigniorage, Operating Rules, and the High Inflation Trap, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 105, Issue 2, pp. 353-374.

Buiter, Willem H., 1987, A Fiscal Theory of Hyperdeflations? Some Surprising Monetarist Arithmetic, Oxford Economic Papers, N. S., Volume 39, Issue 1, pp. 111-118.

Cagan Phillip, 1956, The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation, in Friedman (eds.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, Universisty of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 25-117.

Dekgado F, Dumas B., 1991, Target Zones, Broad and Narrow, in Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands, in P. Krugman and M. Miller, eds. Cambridge University Pres. Dowd Kevin, 1994, A proposal to end inflation, The Economic Journal, 828-840.

Flood R. P., Garber P., 1991, The linkage between speculative attacks and target zone models of exchange rate, Quaterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 106, 1367-1372.

Glasner, David, 1989, Free Banking and Monetary Reform, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989.

Haldane, Andrew ed., 1995, Targeting Inflation, Bank of England.

Haldane, Andrew ed., 1998, Some Issues in Inflation Targeting, Bank of England.

Hall, Robert, 1983, Optimal Fiduciary Monetary Systems, Journal of Monetary Economics 12, 33-50.

Hall, Robert, 1986, Optimal Monetary Institutions and Policy, in Alternative Monetary Systems, ed. by C.D. Campbell and W.R. Dougan, 224-39, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Hetzel, Robert L., 1990, Maintaining Price Stability: A Proposal, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (March/April), 253-65

Kiguel, Miguel A., 1989, Budget Deficits, Stability, and the Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 21, Issue 2, pp. 148-157.

Krugman, Paul R., 1991, Target Zones and exchange rate dynamics, The Quarterly of Economics, vol. CVI, No. 3, 669-682.

Laskar D., 1997, Incohérence temprorelle de la politique monétaire optimale: un argument en faveur des zones cibles, Revue Economique, vol. 48, 5-22.

Mangier A., 1992, Théorie des zones cibles et fonctionnement du SME, Economie et Prévision, vol. 104, 87-113.

McCallum, Bennett T., 1980, Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy, The Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 12, No. 4, 716-746.

Miller M., Weller P. 1991, Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia, Economic Journal, vol. 101, 1980-1399.

Orphanides, Athanasios, and Volker Wieland, 2000, Inflation Zone Targeting, European Economic Review, vol. 44, pp. 1351-87.

Pansard Patrice, 1997, La détermination du taux de change en zones cibles: une synthèse des théories, document de travail, N° 1997-12/EI, Caisses des Dépôts et de Consignations, France.

Pansard, Fabrice, 1999a, Target zones and small realignments, Economics Letters; 64(3), September 1999, 325-327.

Pansard, Fabrice, 1999b, Interest rate, speculative attacks and target zones, Economics Letters; 62(1), January 1999, 81-83.

Rangvid, Jesper and Carsten Sorensen (2001), Determinants of the implied shadow exchange rates from a target zone, European Economic Review; Forthcoming.

Sargent, Thomas J., Wallace, Neil, 1973, Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation, International Economic Review, Volume 14, Issue 2, Pages 328-350.

Sargent, Thomas J., and Neil Wallace, 1975, Rational Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule, Journal of Political Economy, 83, 241-54.

Sumner, Scott, 1989, Using Future Instrument Prices to Target Nominal Income, Bulletin of Economic Research 41, 157-62.

Sumner, Scott, 1991, The Development of Economic Aggregate Targeting, The Cato Journal 12.

Sumner, Scott, 1995, The Impact of Futures Prices Targeting on the Precision and Credibility of Monetary Policy, The Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 27, No. 1, 89-106.

Sutherland A., 1994, Target Zone Models with price inertia: solutions and testable implications, Economic Journal; 104, January 1994, 96-112.

Sutherland, Alan, 1995, Monetary and real shocks and the optimal target zone, European Economic Review; 39(1), January 1995, 161-172.

Svensson, Lars E.O., 1991, Target zones and interest rate variability, Journal of International Economics; 31, 1991, 27-54.

Svensson, Lars E.O., 1992, The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk, Journal of International Economics; 33, August 1992, 21-40.

Svensson, Lars, E. O., 1997, Inflation forecast targeting : Implementing and monitoring inflation targets, European Economic Review, vol., 41, pp .1111-1146.

Svensson, Lars, E. O., 1999c, Inflation targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule, Journal of Monetary Economics, 43, 607-654.

Wooley, W. William, 1992, The Search of Macroeconomic Stability: Comment on Scott Sumner's 'The Development of Economic Aggregate Targeting', The Cato Journal 12, 475-85.