Willenbockel, Dirk and Robinson, Sherman (2009): The Global Financial Crisis, LDC Exports and Welfare: Analysis with a World Trade Model.
This is the latest version of this item.
Download (661kB) | Preview
Changes in international trade flows and world prices are major channels through which the global financial crisis will hit developing countries. The recession in the ‘global North’ triggered by the financial crisis and the resulting slowdown of growth in China and other major emerging economies will generate declines in demand for exports from developing countries, along with a reversal of the beneficial terms-of-trade trends that have favoured net exporters of primary commodities over the last few years. How these trade shocks and terms-of-trade trends affect economic performance and welfare in low-income countries depends on country-specific characteristics and requires a differentiated analysis across countries. This study uses a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) world trade model to gauge the impact of a slowdown in economic activity in the OECD on trade performance, world prices, and aggregate welfare in the rest of the world with a particular focus on the least developed countries (LDCs) in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. The results of the simulation analysis indicate the degree of vulnerability of different developing countries and regions distinguished in the model to impacts arising from the recession via the trade channel.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The Global Financial Crisis, LDC Exports and Welfare: Analysis with a World Trade Model|
|Keywords:||Global financial crisis; terms of trade; recession|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
|Depositing User:||Dirk Willenbockel|
|Date Deposited:||25. May 2009 09:38|
|Last Modified:||29. Apr 2015 04:02|
Athukorala, P. and N. Yamashita (2006) Production Fragmentation and Trade Integration: East Asia in a Global Context. North American Journal of Economics and Finance 17(2), 233–256.
IMF (2008) World Economic Outlook. IMF: Washington, DC (November).
IMF (2009) The Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Low-Income Countries. IMF: Washington, DC (March).
Dimaranan, B.V., R.A. McDougall and T.W. Hertel (2006) Behavioral Parameters. In B.V. Dimaranan (ed) Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 6 Data Base. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University: West Lafayette, Ch.20.
Hertel, T.W, D. Hummels, M. Ivanic, and R. Keeney. (2007) How Confident Can We Be in CGE Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements? Economic Modelling 24(4), 611-35.
Liu, J., C. Arndt and T.W. Hertel (2004) Parameter Estimation and Measures of Fit in a General Equilibrium Model. Journal of Economic Integration 19(3), 626-49.
McDonald, S., K. Thierfelder and S. Robinson (2007) Globe: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data. USNA Working Paper No.14. US Naval Academy: Annapolis.
McDonald, S., S. Robinson and K. Thierfelder (2008) Asian Growth and Trade Poles: India, China, and East and Southeast Asia. World Development 36(2), 210-34.
McDonald, S. and D. Willenbockel (2008) India, Brazil, South Africa and China: Is the South Big Enough? In A. Bayar (ed) Proceedings International Conference on Policy Modeling, Berlin 2008 – ECOMOD 2008. EcoMod Press: Florence, MA.
Narayanan, B. and T. L. Walmsley (eds) (2008) Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 7 Data Base. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University: West Lafayette.
Ng, F. and A. Yeats (2003) Major Trade Trends in East Asia: What are their Implications for Regional Cooperation and Growth? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.3084. World Bank: Washington, DC.
Noland, M., S. Robinson, L. Liu and Z. Wang (1998). Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluations, Washington DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
OECD (2008) OECD Economic Outlook. OECD: Paris (November).
USDA-ERS (2009) USDA Economic Research Service International Macroeconomic Data Set. US Department of Agriculture (www.ers.usda.gov – accessed January 2009).
World Bank (2009) Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads. World Bank: Washington, DC (January).
Available Versions of this Item
The global financial crisis, LDC exports and welfare: analysis with a world trade model. (deposited 16. Feb 2013 00:27)
- The Global Financial Crisis, LDC Exports and Welfare: Analysis with a World Trade Model. (deposited 25. May 2009 09:38) [Currently Displayed]