Siregar, Reza.Y. and Goo, Siwei (2009): Effectiveness and Commitment to Inflation Targeting Policy: Evidences from Indonesia and Thailand.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_17271.pdf Download (259kB) | Preview |
Abstract
The chief objective of our paper is to highlight basic features of the IT policies adopted by Indonesia and Thailand, and to evaluate the commitment of the monetary authorities and the overall performances of the IT regime. The results demonstrate that the IT regime in these two economies has had some success, but not during the immediate aftermath of the Lehman Brothers’ collapse in the last quarter of 2008. Furthermore, the implementations of the IT policy in these two Southeast Asian economies have largely been “flexible” during the stable period, seeking the balance between narrowing output gap, managing exchange rate volatility, and anchoring inflationary pressure. However during the turbulent period, there had been a heightened focus in anchoring inflationary expectation.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Effectiveness and Commitment to Inflation Targeting Policy: Evidences from Indonesia and Thailand |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Inflationary Expectation; Output Gap; Inflation Targeting; Pass-through, Monetary Policy Rule. |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E52 - Monetary Policy F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions |
Item ID: | 17271 |
Depositing User: | Reza Yamora Siregar |
Date Deposited: | 13 Sep 2009 13:55 |
Last Modified: | 16 Oct 2019 21:39 |
References: | Aizenman, J., Hutchison, M and Noy, Ilan (2008), “Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets”, NBER Working Paper no. 14561. Alamsyah, H., Joseph, C., Agung, J and Zulverdy, D. (2001), “Towards Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Indonesia”, Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Vol. 37, No.3, pp. 309-324. Banerjee, A., Lumsdaine, R.L. Stock, J.H. (1992), “Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root Test and Trend Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, pp. 271-287. Bernanke, B. and Mishkin, F.S. (2007), “Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?” in Mishkin (ed), Monetary Policy Strategy, The MIT Press,Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. BIS (2005), 75th Annual Report (Basel). Boediono (1998), “Merenungkan Kembali Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter di Indonesia[Revisiting the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Indonesia]”, Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 1(1), pp. 1-4. Bryan, M.F. and Cecchetti, S.G. (1995), “The Seasonality of Inflation”, Economic Review of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 31, Quarter 2, pp.12-23. Campa, J.M. and Goldberg, L.S. (2002), “Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?,” NBER Working Paper, No. 8934, May. Cecchetti, S.G. (1997), “Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers”, Economic Review of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 79, (May/June), pp. 143-156. Chadha, J.S., Lucio, S., and Valente, G. (2004), “Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates”, IMF Staff Papers, Vol.51, No. 3. Charoenseang, J. and Manakit, P. (2007), “Thai Monetary Policy Transmission in an Inflation Targeting Era”, Journal of Asian Economics, 18, pp. 144-157. Cecchetti, S.G. and Ehrmann, M. (1999), “Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility? An International Comparison of Policy Makers’ Preferences and Outcomes”, NBER Working Paper, No. 7426, December. Clarida, R. (2001), “The Empirics of Monetary Policy Rules in Open Economies”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6(4), pp. 315-323. Clarida R., Gali, J., and Gertler, M. (1998), “Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence”, European Economic Review, 42(6), pp. 315-323. Cogley, T. (2002), “A Simple Adaptive Measure of Core Inflation”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.34, No.1, February, pp.94-113. Corbo, V., Landerretche, O., and Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2001), “Assessing Inflation Targeting After a Decade of World Experience”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6, pp.343-368. Edwards, S. (2006), “The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited,” NBER Working Paper, No.12163, April. Frankel, J., Parsley, D., and Wei, S.J. (2005), “Slow Pass-Through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?”, NBER Working Paper, No.11199. Gagnon, Joseph E. and Jane Ihrig (2004). “Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-Through,” International Journal of Finance and Economics, 9(4), pp. 315-338. Hamilton, J.D. (1989), “A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle”, Econometrica, 57(2), pp.357-384. Hamilton, J. and Susmel, R. 1994, ‘Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and changes in regime’, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 64, pp. 307-333. Hendry, D.F. (1976). The structure of simultaneous equations estimators. Journal of Econometrics, 4, 51-88. Ho, C., & McCauley, R. N. (2003), “Living with flexible exchange rates: Issues and recent experience in inflation targeting emerging market economies”, BIS Working Papers, No.130. Hodrick, R.J. and Prescott, E.C. (1997), “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 29, No. 1 (February) , pp. 1-16. IMF (2005), the World Economic Outlook, Chapter IV, September. Jansen, K. (2001), “Thailand, financial crisis and monetary policy”, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 6(1), 124-152. Kastner, S.L., and Kim, S.Y. (2008), “Why the Rush to Bilateral Free Trade Agreements in Asia-Pacific?” Presented at the International Studies Association Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, March. Krolzig, H.-M. (1997). Markov Switching Vector Autoregression. Berlin: Springer-Verlag. Kubo, A. (2008), “Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Recent Experience in Thailand”, Journal of Asian Economics, 19, pp. 83-91. McCauley, R.N. (2006), “Core versus Headline Inflation Targeting in Thailand”, paper presented in Bank of Thailand’s International Symposium on Challenges to Inflation Targeting in Emerging Countries, Bangkok, 13-14 November. McKinnon, R. I., & Schnabl, G. (2004). The East Asian dollar standard, fear of floating, and original sin. Review of Development Economics, 8(3), 331-360. Meese, R., and Rogoff, K. (1983), “Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies,” Journal of International Economics, 14(1-2), pp.3-24. Mishkin, F. S., & Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2001), "One decade of inflation targeting in the world: What do we know and what do we need to know?" NBER Working Paper, 8397. Mishkin, F.S. and Schdmit-Hebbel, K. (2007), “Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?” NBER Working paper, No.12876 (January). Rudebusch, G. and Svensson, L.E.O. (1999), “Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting”, in Taylor, J.B. (Ed), Monetary Policy Rules, University of Chicago Press (1999). Schmidt-Hebbel, K., and Tapia, M. (2002), “Monetary Policy Implementation and Results in Twenty Inflation-Targeting Countries”, Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No. 166. Sen, R. and Rajan, R.S. (2005), “The New Wave of FTAs in Asia: Implications for ASEAN, China and India”, ADB Volume on Asian Economic Cooperation and Integration, Manila: Asian Development Bank, pp.123-160. Sims, C.A. (1999), “Drift and Breaks in Monetary Policy”, Unpublished Manuscript, Princeton University. Siregar, R., and Rajan, R.S. (2006), “Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature”, The Center for International Economic Studies Working Paper, 06-04, the School of Economics, University of Adelaide, Australia,April. Sriphayak, A. (2001), “Model-Based Forecasts in the Bank of Thailand”, paper presented in Inflation Targeting: Theory, Empirical Models and Implementation in Pacific basin Economies, the 14th Pacific Basin Conference, Bank of Korea, Seoul. Svensson, L.E.O. (2000), “Open Economy Inflation Targeting”, Journal of International Economics, 50(1), pp. 155-183. Taylor, J.B. (1993), “Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice”, Canargie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, pp. 195-214. Taylor, J. B. (2000), “Low Inflation, Pass-Through, and the Pricing Power of Firms,” European Economic Review, 44(7), pp. 1389-1408. Taylor, J.B. (2001), “The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules”, American Economic Review, Vol. 91, No.2, Papers and Proceeding of the Hundred Thirteenth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, (May) pp. 263-267. Trehan, B. and Wu, T. (2007), “Time-Varying Equilibrium Real Rates and Monetary Policy Analysis”, Journal of Economic Dynamic & Control, 31, pp. 1584-1609. Valente, G. (2003), “Monetary Policy Rules and Regime Shifts”, Applied Financial Economics, 13(7), pp.525-535. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/17271 |