Cellini, Roberto and Cuccia, Tiziana (2009): Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: A time series analysis approach.
Download (105kB) | Preview
This paper takes a time series analysis approach to evaluate the directions of causality between tourism flows, on the one side, and museum and monument attendance, on the other. We consider Italy as a case study, and analyze monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2007. All considered series are seasonally integrated, and co-integration links emerge. We focus on the error correction mechanism among co-integrated time series to detect the directional link(s) of causality. Clear-cut results emerge: generally, the causality runs from tourist flows to museum and monument attendance. The non-stationary nature of time series, their co-integration relationships, and the direction of causal links suggest specific implication for tourism and cultural policies.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: A time series analysis approach.|
|Keywords:||Tourism; Museum; Seasonal unit root; Co-integration; Causality.|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z10 - General
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
|Depositing User:||Roberto Cellini|
|Date Deposited:||30. Nov 2009 15:49|
|Last Modified:||23. Mar 2015 20:23|
Algieri, B. (2006). An econometric estimation of the demand for tourism: the case of Russia. Tourism Economics, 12, 5-20.
Alleyene, D. (2006). Can season unit root testing improve the forecasting accuracy of tourist arrivals?. Tourism Economics, 12, 45-64.
Arezki R., R. Cherif and J. Piotrowski (2009). Tourism specialization and economic development: Evidence from the UNESCO World Heritage List. IMF working paper 09/176.
Balaguer, J. and Cantavella-Jordà, M. (2002). Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: the Spanish Case. Applied Economics, 34, 877-884.
Bille, T. and G. G. Schulze (2008). Culture in urban and regional development. In V. A. Ginsburgh and D. Throsby (Eds.), Handbook of the Economics of Art and Culture, Amsterdam: North Holland - Elsevier, 1051-1099.
Brida J. G., E. Carrera and W.A. Risso (2008). Tourism’s Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth. Economics Bulletin, 3(21), 1-8.
Cellini, R. and G. Torrisi (2009). The regional public spending for tourism in Italy: An empirical analysis. MPRA working paper n. 16131
Cooke, P. and L. Lazzaretti (2008). Creative Cities, cultural clusters and local economic development, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
de Olivera Santos G.E. (2009). Forecasting tourism demand by disaggregating time series: Empirical evidence from Spain. Tourism Economics, 15, 467-72.
Dickey D.A., Hasza D. P., and Fuller W. A. (1984). Testing for Unit Roots in Seasonal Time Series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79, 355-367.
Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a Long-run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis. Tourism Economics, 10, 305-316.
Dritsakis, N. (2008). Seasonal Analysis of Tourist Revenues: An Empirical Research for Greece. Tourismos, 3(2), 57-70.
Engle R. F. and Granger C. (1987). Co-integration and Error-Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
Engle R. F., Granger C. W. J, and Hallman J.J. (1989) “Merging Short- and Long- Run Forecasts. An Application of Seasonal Cointegration to Monthly Electricity sales Forecasting. Journal of Econometrics, 40, 45-62.
Engle R. F., Granger C. W. J, Hylleberg S., and Lee H. S. (1993). Seasonal Cointegration: the Japanese Consumption Function. Journal of Econometrics, 55, 275-303.
Fedeli S., and M. Santoni (2006) “The Government’s Choice of Bureaucratic organization: An Application to Italian State Museums. Journal of Cultural Economics, 30, 41-72.
Fransen, P.H. (2006). Recent advances in modeling seasonality. Journal of Economic Survey, 10,299-345.
Fransen P.H. Kunst R.M. (1999). On the Role of Seasonal Intercepts in Seasonal Cointegration. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 409-433.
Frey B. S. and S. Meier (2006). The Economics of Museums. In V. A. Ginsburgh and D. Throsby (Eds.), Handbook of the Economics of Art and Culture, Amsterdam: North Holland - Elsevier, 1017-1042.
Goh, C., and R. Law (2002). Modelling and forecasting tourism demand for arrivals with stochastic nonstationary seasonality and intervention. Tourism Management, 23: 499-510.
Granger, C. W. J. (1988). Some recent developments in a concept of causality, Journal of Econometrics, 39, 199-211.
Granger C. W .J. and Lin J.-L. (1995). Causality in the Long Run. Econometric Theory, 11, 530-36.
Granger, C. W. J. and Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
Gregory A. W. and Hansen B. E. (1996) “Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126.
Ghysels E., Osborn D. R. (2001). The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Hylleberg S. (1995). Tests for Seasonal Unit Roots. General to Specific or Specific to General?. Journal of Econometrics, 69, 5-25.
Inder B., “Estimating Long-run Relationships in Economics. Journal of Econometrics, 75, 53-68.
Kremers J., N. Ericsson, and J. Dolado (1992) “The Power of Cointegration Tests. Oxford Bullettin of Economics and Statistics, 54, 325-348.
Koc E., G. Altinay (2007) , “An analysis of seasonality in monthly per person tourist spending in Turkish inbound tourism from a market segmentation perspective. Tourism Management, 28, 227-237.
Kotler N. and P. Kotler (1998). Museum strategy and marketing. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Inc Publisher
Kunst R. M. (1997). Testing for Cyclical Nonstationarity in Autoregressive Processes. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 18, 123-135.
Johansen S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-54.
Johansen S. and C. Juselius (1990).”Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with application to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
Johnson P. S. (2003). Museum. In R. Towse (Ed.), A handbook of cultural economics, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 315-320.
Lampi, E. and M. Orth (2009). Who visits the museums? A comparison between stated preferences and observed effects of entrance fees. Kyklos, 62, 85-102.
Lim C., and M. McAleer (2000). A Seasonal Analysis of Asian Tourist Arrivals to Australia. Applied Economics, 32, 499-509.
Lim C., and M. McAleer (2001). Cointegration Analysis of Quarterly Tourism Demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia” Applied Economics, 33, 1599-1619
Maddison, D. and T. Foster (2003). Valuing congestion costs in the British Museum. Oxford Economic Papers, 55, 173-190.
Masih M., A. Al-Elg A., and H. Madani (2009). Causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Application of Vector Error Correction and Variance Decomposition Methods to Saudi Arabia. Applied Economics, 41, 1691-99.
Narayan P. K. (2004) “Fiji tourism demand: the ARDL approach to cointegration. Tourism Economics, 10, 193-206.
Phillips P. C. B. and M. Loretan (1991) “Estimating Long-Run Economic Equilibria. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 405-35.
Plaza, B. (2008). On some chellenges and conditions for the Guggenheim museum Bilbao to be an effective economic re-activator. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 32, 506-517.
Santagata, W. and G. Signorello, (2000). Contingent valuation and cultural policy: the case of Napoli Musei Aperti. Journal of Cultural Economics, 24, 181-204.
Yang, C.H., H.L. Lin. and C.C. Han (2009). Analysis of international tourist arrivals in China: The role of World Heritage sites. Tourism Management, in press.