Results of a special questionnaire for participants in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)

Meyler, Aidan and Rubene, Ieva (2009): Results of a special questionnaire for participants in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF).

Abstract

This document provides a summary of the aggregate results of a special questionnaire which was sent to the participants in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) in autumn 2008, in the context of the ten-year anniversary of the SPF’s launch in January 1999.

In summary, the results show that the SPF responses are quite timely and that the forecasts are based on heterogeneous assumptions that are predominantly generated in house. In addition, although both structural and time series models are widely used, judgement also plays a key role, in particular for the reported probability distributions. It is thus very important to consider the heterogeneity of the SPF forecasts when analysing and interpreting the results of the SPF.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: SPF; Survey; Forecasts; Expectations; Formation
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty; D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D84 - Expectations ; Speculations; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; ; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

References

Bowles, C., R. Friz, V. Genre, G. Kenny, A. Meyler and T. Rautanen (2007), The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) – A review after eight years’ experience, ECB Occasional Paper Series No 59, April