Evaluation of Dutch election programs: The impact of parameter uncertainty

Knoben, J. and Kerkhofs, M. and Graafland, J.J. (2004): Evaluation of Dutch election programs: The impact of parameter uncertainty. Published in: Tijdschrift voor Economie en Management , Vol. 1, No. 51 (2006): pp. 47-72.

Abstract

Shortly before the national elections in the Netherlands, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) evaluates the economic effects of the policy proposals in election programs. This paper investigates the sensitivity of this analysis to the uncertainty of parameter estimates in the economic models that are used. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo analysis of five election programs is performed, using a core version of one of the CPB models. We find that the range of projected outcomes is surprisingly small. Nonetheless, caution remains needed, especially when the estimated effects of different parties are roughly similar.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Model simulation; policy evaluation; parameter uncertainty; CGE models
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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