Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri

Bilgin, Cevat and Sahbaz, Ahmet (2009): Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri. Published in: Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi , Vol. 8, No. 1 (2009): pp. 177-198.

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2006 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic product since we use monthly data. For the variables of export, import, terms of trade and industrial production index, first of all ADF unit root tests are carried out. All of the variables are found to be same degree integrated. Thus, long run relations among the variables are examined in the framework of Johansen co-integration analysis. Provided with the long run relation, vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Granger causality tests based on VECM and modified Wald tests (MWALD) defined by Toda Yamamoto (1995) are carried out to determine the directions of the relations among the variables. According to the test results, export-led growth is verified for the specified period.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey
• Language: Turkish
• Keywords: Export-led growth, Johansen co-integration, Granger causality, modified Wald test
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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