Mamatzakis, E and Christodoulakis, G (2009): Transition of Social Welfare in the European Country Clubs.
Download (201kB) | Preview
This paper focuses on the dynamics of welfare by studying the persistence and transition of poverty risk, social transfers, employment and unemployment in the four European Country Clubs as defined by Esping-Andersen, G. (1990) and Bertola et al. (2001). We model their evolution in a multistate Markov process for proportions of aggregate data and estimate the transition matrix by adopting a Bayesian approach under inequality constraints and Monte Carlo Integration. Our approach uncovers the entire empirical posterior distribution of persistence and transition probabilities, for which statistical inference is readily available. The results show high persistence in unemployment rate in the Anglo-Saxon social club, whilst regarding social expenditures the four identified social clubs converge to two, the Nordic with the Continental club and the Anglo-Saxon with the Southern club. The half life statistics show fast pace across all variables of interest.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Transition of Social Welfare in the European Country Clubs|
|English Title:||Markovian Transition of Social Welfare Clubs in the EU|
|Keywords:||Social Clubs, Markov Chains, Monte Carlo Integration, Transition|
|Subjects:||I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty > I30 - General
O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General
|Depositing User:||emmanuel c mamatzakis|
|Date Deposited:||05 May 2010 09:45|
|Last Modified:||23 Jan 2017 12:12|
Bertola, G. 2007. Welfare Policy Integration Inconsistencies. in Helge Berger and Thomas Moutos, eds., Designing the New European Union, Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp.91-120.
European Commission. 2006. Implementing the Renewed Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Jobs: a year of delivery. Communication to the Spring European Council, Brussels.
Eurostat. 2006. Population and Social Conditions: Social Protection Expenditures.”. Various Issues.
Esping-Andersen, G. 1990. The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism, Polity Press, Cambridge UK.
Kloek, T. and H. K. van Dijk. 1978. Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: an Application of Integration by Monte Carlo. Econometrica, 46 (1), 1-19.
van Dijk, H. K. and T. Kloek. 1980. Further Experience in Bayesian Analysis Using Monte Carlo Integration. Journal of Econometrics, 14, 307-328.