Analyse et mesure de l'incertitude en prevision d'un modele econometrique. Application au modele mini-DMS

Bianchi, Carlo and Brillet, Jean-Louis and Calzolari, Giorgio (1984): Analyse et mesure de l'incertitude en prevision d'un modele econometrique. Application au modele mini-DMS. Published in: Annales de l'INSEE No. 54 (1984): pp. 31-62.

Abstract

This article describes the application to an operational medium-size econometric model, mini-DMS, of methods associating, to deterministic forecasts, a measure of the uncertainty due to the stochastic nature of behavioural equations. After having described the theoretical and practical foundations of the methods, we shal l analyze sequentially the deterministic bias, the uncertainty (standard error) of forecasts and of policy instruments, trying to look at the information from the point of view of the policy maker.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Analysis and measurement of forecast uncertainty in an econometric model. Application to mini-DMS model
• Language: French
• Keywords: Mini-DMS model of France, Stochastic simulation
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C30 - General

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