Modeling & Forecasting of Macro-Economic Variables of India: Before, During & After Recession

Sinha, Pankaj and Gupta, Sushant and Randev, Nakul (2010): Modeling & Forecasting of Macro-Economic Variables of India: Before, During & After Recession.

Abstract

This paper examines the state of the Indian economy pre, during and post recession by analyzing various macro economic factors such as GDP, exchange rate, inflation, capital markets and fiscal deficit. We forecast some of the major economic variables using ARIMA modeling and present a picture of the Indian economy in the coming years. The findings indicate that Indian economy is reviving after a slowdown during the period of global recession. It is forecasted that GDP, foreign investments, fiscal deficit and capital markets will rise in 2010-11. Furthermore, the rupee-dollar exchange rate will not change much during the same period.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: ARIMA, Box-Jenkins, Indian Economy, Forecasting
• Subjects: B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925 > B22 - Macroeconomics; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E0 - General > E00 - General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C01 - Econometrics

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