Casson, Catherine and Fry, J. M. (2011): Revolutionary change and structural breaks: A time series analysis of wages and commodity prices in Britain 1264-1913.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_27866.pdf Download (95kB) | Preview |
Abstract
In this paper we empirically test the hypothesis that economic revolutions are associated with structural breaks in historical economic data. A simple test for structural breaks in economic time series is applied to British wage and price data from the medieval to the modern period. Evidence for structural change is found in nearly half of the series studied -- suggesting that structural breaks are an intrinsic feature of such historic data. Structural changes are most closely linked to the Commercial Revolution followed by the Agricultural Revolution and the Industrial Revolution, with changes linked to an underlying process of price stabilisation as measured by a decrease in the long-term level of volatility.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Revolutionary change and structural breaks: A time series analysis of wages and commodity prices in Britain 1264-1913 |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | historical economics; economic revolutions; structural breaks; price stabilisation |
Subjects: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C00 - General N - Economic History > N0 - General P - Economic Systems > P5 - Comparative Economic Systems > P52 - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies |
Item ID: | 27866 |
Depositing User: | John Fry |
Date Deposited: | 06 Jan 2011 10:35 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2019 14:47 |
References: | Allen, R. C. Craftsmen's relative wages. Available at the Global price and history group \texttt{http://gpih.ucdavis.edu/Datefilelist.htm} (accessed July 5th 2010) Allen, R. C. Labourer's relative wages. Available at the Global price and history group \texttt{http://gpih.ucdavis.edu/Datefilelist.htm} (accessed July 5th 2010) Allen, R. C. (2001) The great divergence in European prices and wages from the middle ages to the First World War. Explorations in Economic History 38 411-447. Bai, J. (1997) Estimation of a change point in mutiple regression models. Review of Economics and Statistics 79 551-563. Bai, J. and Perron, P. (2003) Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics 18 1-22. Beck, S. (2001) Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in commodity spot prices. Journal of Applied Economics 16 115-132. Bell, A. R., Brooks, C. and Moore, T. K. (2009) Interest in medieval accounts: examples from England, 1272-1340. History 94 411-433. Berg, M. and Hudson, P. (1992) Rehabilitating the Industrial Revolution. The Economic History Review, Second Series, 45 24-50. Beveridge, W. (1939) Prices and wages in England from the twelfth to the nineteenth century. Longmans Green, London. Clark, G. (2001) Microbes and markets: was the Black Death an ecomomic revolution? Preprint. www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/papers/black1.pdf Clark, G. (2004) The price history of English agriculture, 1209-1914. Research in Economic History 22 41-123. Clark, G. (2007) What made Britannia great? How much of the rise of Britain to world dominance by 1850 does the Industrial Revolution Explain. In Hatton, T., O'Rourke, K. and Taylor, A. (eds.) Comparative Economic History: Essays in honour of Jeffrey Williamson, MIT Press, Cambridge Massachussets pp33-57. Clark, G. England prices and wages since thirteenth century. Available at the Global price and history group http://gpih.ucdavis.edu/Datefilelist.htm (accessed July 5th 2010) Collins, E. J. T. (ed.) (2000) The Agrarian History of England and Wales}, Volume 7, Part 2. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Cont, R. and Tankov, P. (2004) Financial modelling with jump processes. Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton London Hiedelberg Washington DC. Crafts, N. F. R. and Harley, C. K. (2000) Simulating the two views of the British Industrial Revolution. The Journal of Economic History 60 819-841. Deaton, A. and Guy, L. (1992) On the behaviour of commodity prices. Review of Economic Studies 59 1-23. Farmer, D. L. (1988) Prices and wages [1000-1355], in Hallam, H. E. (ed.) The Agrarian History of England and wales, Volume 2. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge pp716-781. Farmer, D. L. (1991) Prices and wages [1350-1500], in Millar, E. (ed.) The Agrarian History of England and wales, Volume 3. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge pp431-525. Hartwell, R. M., (1967) The causes of the Industrial Revolution: an essay in methodology, in Hartwell, R. M. (ed.) The causes of the Industrial Revolution in England. Methuen and Co. Ltd, London. Hartwell, R. M. (1971) The Industrial Revolution and economic growth. Methuen and Co. Ltd, London. Jones, E. L. (1988) Growth recurring: economic change in world history. Oxford University Press, Oxford. Markowitz, H. M. (1959) Portfolio selection: efficient diversification of investment. John Wiley and Sons, New York. Mingay, G. E. (ed.) (1989) The Agrarian History of England and Wales, Volume 6. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Morrill, J. (2004) The house of Stuart, 1603-1714, in Ormrod, W. M. (ed.) The Kings and Queens of England. Tempus, Stroud pp225-262. Munro, J. H. (2003) The medieval origins of the financial revolution: usury, rentes and negotiability. The International History Review 25 505-562. O'Brien, P. (2006) Provincializing the First Industrial Revolution. Working Papers of the Global Economic History Network (GEHN) No. 17/07 O'Brien, P. (2010) A conjuncture in global history or an Anglo-American construct: the British Industrial Revolution, 1700-1850. Journal of Global History 5 503-509. Phelps Brown, E. H. and Hopkins, S. V. (1955) Seven centuries of building wages. Economica 22 195-206. Phelps Brown, E. H. and Hopkins, S. V. (1956) Seven centuries of the prices of consumables, compared with builders' wages rates. Economica 23 296-314. Phelps Brown, E. H. and Hopkins, S. V. (1981) A perspective of wages and prices. Routledge, London. Rossana, R. and Seater, J. J. (1992) Aggregation, unit roots and the time series structure of manufacturing real wages. International Economic Review 33 159-179. Schwarz, G. E. (1978) Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics 6 461-464. Snedecor, G. W. and Cochran, W. G. (1989) Statistical Methods, Eighth Edition. Iowa University Press, Iowa. Thirsk, J. (ed.) (1967) The Agrarian History of England and Wales, Volume 4. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Thirsk, J. (ed.) (1992) The Agrarian History of England and Wales}, Volume 5, Part 2, Second Edition. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Thorold Rogers, J. E. A History of agriculture and prices in England from the year after the Oxford parliament (1259) to the commencement of the continental war (1793), entirely from original and contemporaneous records, Seven Volumes. Clarendon Press, Oxford. Thorold Rogers, J. E. (1917) Six centuries of work and wages: the history of English labour, Twelfth Edition. T. Fisher Unwin, London. Wang, D. and Tomek, W. G. (2007) Commodity prices and unit root tests. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 89 873-889. Whetham, E. H. (ed.) (1978) The Agrarian History of England and Wales. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Wiesner-Hanks, M. E. (2006) Early Modern Europe, 1450-1789. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Zeileis, A., Kleiber, C., Kramer, W. and Hornik, K. (2003) Testing and dating of structural changes in practice. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 44 109-112. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/27866 |