Logo
Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Forecasting model of small scale industrial sector of West Bengal

Bera, Soumitra Kumar (2010): Forecasting model of small scale industrial sector of West Bengal.

[thumbnail of MPRA_paper_28144.pdf]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_28144.pdf

Download (920kB) | Preview

Abstract

This study seeks to generate the forecasts for the small scale industrial sector of West Bengal for the ensuing decade till 2019-20. Forecasts have been generated for production, direct employment, capital formation and number of units in this sector. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been used taking the lead time of 13 years. The analysis of forecasted figures has revealed that the fixed capital investment and production would experience significant growth during the lead time of thirteen years. Number of units and employment are expected to observe meager growth during this period indicating low possibility of absorption of labor force in this sector. In the light of the forecasts, it is required on the part of the state government to take all concerted efforts and initiatives to strengthen the industrial base in West Bengal. In this regard catastrophic changes are required so far as industrial policy of West Bengal is concerned.

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact us: mpra@ub.uni-muenchen.de

This repository has been built using EPrints software.

MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by Logo of the University Library LMU Munich.