Revisiting Okun's law for Mexico: an analysis of the permanent and transitory components of unemployment and output

Islas-Camargo, Alejandro and Cortez, Willy W. (2011): Revisiting Okun's law for Mexico: an analysis of the permanent and transitory components of unemployment and output.

Abstract

Unlike usual estimation techniques, we follow Clark (1989) to estimate the correlation between the transitory components of unemployment and output as part of a system of correlations between the permanent and transitory components of both series. This model provides better estimate of the Okun’s Law and it takes into account the correlations that arise between the permanent and transitory components of unemployment and output within each series and across series. We find that the Okun’s coefficient for Mexican economy is significantly lower than previous estimates.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: unobserved components; business cycles; labor market; Mexican economy
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E23 - Production

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