Chen, Liang and Dolado, Juan Jose and Gonzalo, Jesus (2011): Detecting big structural breaks in large factor models.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_31344.pdf Download (309kB) | Preview |
Abstract
Constant factor loadings is a standard assumption in the analysis of large dimensional factor models. Yet, this assumption may be restrictive unless parameter shifts are mild. In this paper we develop a new testing procedure to detect big breaks in factor loadings at either known or unknown dates. It is based upon testing for structural breaks in a regression of the first of the ¯r factors estimated by PC for the whole sample on the remaining r−1 factors, where r is chosen using Bai and Ng´s (2002) information criteria. We argue that this test is more powerful than other tests available in the literature on this issue.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Detecting big structural breaks in large factor models |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | structural break; large factor model |
Subjects: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models |
Item ID: | 31344 |
Depositing User: | Liang Chen |
Date Deposited: | 08 Jun 2011 12:52 |
Last Modified: | 27 Sep 2019 00:29 |
References: | Andrews, D. (1993). Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica 61(4), 821–856. Bai, J. (2003). Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71(1), 135–171. Bai, J. and S. Ng (2002). Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70(1), 191–221. Bai, J. and S. Ng (2006). Confidence intervals for diffusion index forecasts and inference for factor-augmented regressions. Econometrica 74(4), 1133–1150. Bai, J. and P. Perron (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica 66(1), 47–78. Bai, J. and P. Perron (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics 18(1), 1–22. Banerjee, A., M. Marcellino, and I. Masten (2008). Forecasting macroeconomic variables using diffusion indexes in short samples with structural change. CEPR DP. 6706. Bernanke, B., J. Boivin, and P. Eliasz (2005). Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 120(1), 387. Breitung, J. and S. Eickmeier (2010). Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models. Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming. Diebold, F. and C. Chen (1996). Testing structural stability with endogenous breakpoint a size comparison of analytic and bootstrap procedures. Journal of Econometrics 70(1), 221–241. Forni, M. and M. Lippi (2001). The generalized dynamic factor model: representation theory. Econometric Theory 17(06), 1113–1141. Giannone, D. (2007). Discussion: "forecasting in dynamic factor models subject to structural instability" by stock and watson. In New Developments in Dynamic Factor Modelling. Bank of England, Centre for Central Banking Studies. Newey, W. and K. West (1987). A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica 55(3), 703–708. Rudebusch, G. and T.Wu (2008). A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy and the economy. The Economic Journal 118(530), 906–926. 32 Stock, J. and M. Watson (2002). Forecasting using principal components from a large number of predictors. Journal of the American Statistical Association 97(460), 1167– 1179. Stock, J. andM.Watson (2009). Forecasting in dynamic factor models subject to structural instability. The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics. A Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry, 173–205. White, H. (2001). Asymptotic theory for econometricians. Academic Press Orlando,Florida. Wooldridge, J. and H.White (1988). Some invariance principles and central limit theorems for dependent heterogeneous processes. Econometric Theory 4(2), 210–230. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/31344 |