Valuation of Latin-American stock prices with alternative versions of the Ohlson model: An investigation of cointegration relationships with time-series and panel-data

Duran-Vazquez, Rocio and Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo and Ruiz-Porras, Antonio (2011): Valuation of Latin-American stock prices with alternative versions of the Ohlson model: An investigation of cointegration relationships with time-series and panel-data. Forthcoming in: Espinosa-Ramirez, R. (coord.), "Topics on International Economic Relations", Universidad de Guadalajara, México

Abstract

We develop an investigation regarding the determinants of the stock prices in six Latin American emerging markets (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). We test the traditional Ohlson model and an international version of it. The international model includes the Dow Jones index as an additional explanatory variable. We use time-series and panel-data cointegration methodologies to assess the long-run relationships among the variables postulated by both models. We use quarterly data for the period 2000:01-2010:03. The results suggest that panel-data techniques may be better than time-series ones for the assessments. They support the use of the Ohlson models and, specially, the international one. The variables are significant and have the postulated signs. These results hold when the firms are considered as a whole and for the commercial and construction firms. Furthermore, the results also suggest that the Latin American asset prices are complementary to the US ones in the long run.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Ohlson Model; Latin America; Cointegration
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing ; Trading Volume ; Bond Interest Rates; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C33 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; M - Business Administration and Business Economics ; Marketing ; Accounting ; Personnel Economics > M4 - Accounting and Auditing > M40 - General

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