Kwasnicki, Witold (2011): China, India and the future of the global economy. Forthcoming in: Ekonomia, Wroclaw University of Economics
Download (1MB) | Preview
In the first part of the paper an overview of the long-term global economic growth forecasts is presented (e.g., forecasts of Uri Dadush and Bennett Stancil of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a report by HSBC, CitiGroup report, reports of PricewaterhouseCoopers, or Goldman Sachs reports). In this context, the diversified views and opinions on future economic development of China and India (currently considered as the fastest-growing major economies in the world) are presented. In the second part of the article, an extrapolative forecast of global GDP and an estimation of the economies of China and India in global production by 2050 based on the so-called evolutionary model of competition is outlined. The evolutionary model of competition enables to estimate the competitiveness of national economies, therefore in the second part of the paper we presents also the results of estimation of the competitiveness of the economies of India and China after World War II. One aim of that research is to compare the competitiveness of China and India with the leaders of economic development in the twentieth century, namely the United States, Great Britain, Germany, Japan and the European Union. The summary of these considerations are estimations the shares of GDP of China and India in the global product based on global scenarios of the competitiveness changes of these economies over the next 40 years.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||China, India and the future of the global economy|
|Keywords:||future studies; forecasting; globalization; economic growth|
|Subjects:||O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C63 - Computational Techniques ; Simulation Modeling
|Depositing User:||prof. Witold Kwasnicki|
|Date Deposited:||03. Aug 2011 21:43|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 03:20|
Buiter Willem and Ebrahim Rahbari, ‘Global growth generators: Moving beyond emerging markets and BRICs’, 21 February 2011; Citi Investment Research & Analysis, a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc., http://www.nber.org/~wbuiter/3G.pdf
Dadush Uri and Bennett Stancil, ‘The World order in 2050’, 2010, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/World_Order_in_2050.pdf
Dreaming With BRICs: The Path to 2050, 1st October 2003, http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/book/99-dreaming.pdf
Hawksworth John and Anmol Tiwari, The World in 2050. The accelerating shift of global economic power: challenges and opportunities, January 2011, http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/pdf/world-in-2050-jan-2011.pdf
Hawksworth John and Gordon Cookson, The World 2050, Beyond the BRICs: a broader look at emerging market growth prospects, Match 2008.
Hawksworth John, The World in 2050. How big will the major emerging market economies get and how can the OECD compete?, March 2006, http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/pdf/world2050emergingeconomies.pdf
Kwasnicki W., H. Kwasnicka, ‘Long-Term Diffusion Factors of Technological Development: An Evolutionary Model and Case Study’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 52 (1996), 31-57.
Maddison Angus, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run. Second Edition, Revised and updated: 960-2030 AD, OECD 2007.
O’Neill Jim, Building Better Global Economic BRICs, 30th November 2001, Global Economics, Paper No: 66, http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/building-better-doc.pdf
Poddar Tushar and Eva Yi, BRICs and Beyond, January 22, 2007, http://www.usindiafriendship.net/viewpoints1/Indias_Rising_Growth_Potential.pdf
Poncet Sandra, (2006), The Long Term Growth Prospects of the World Economy: Horizon 2050 http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/workpap/summaries/2006/wp06-16.htm
Quah Danny, The Global Economy’s Shifting Centre of Gravity, Global Policy, Volume 2, Issue 1, pages 3–9, January 2011; http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1758-5899.2010.00066.x/full
Ramesh Jairam, Making Sense of Chindia: Reflections on China and India, India Research Press, 2005.
Rising power, anxious state, The special report on China, The Economist, 23.01.2011, http://www.economist.com/node/18829149
Smith Laurence C., THE WORLD IN 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future [Dutton / Penguin USA, published by Dutton in September 2010 [UK edition titled THE NEW NORTH: The World in 2050, Profile Books 2011].
Ten Things for India to Achieve its 2050 Potential, June 16, 2008, http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/ten-things-doc.pdf
The Long-Term Outlook for the BRICs and N-11 Post Crisis, December 4, 2009, http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/long-term-outlook-doc.pdf
Ward Karen, ‘The World in 2050’, January 2011, http://www.research.hsbc.com/midas/Res/RDV?p=pdf&key=ej73gSSJVj&n=282364.PDF