Estimating the causal effect of forced eradication on coca cultivation in Colombian municipalities

Reyes, Luis Carlos (2011): Estimating the causal effect of forced eradication on coca cultivation in Colombian municipalities.

Abstract

Coca eradication has been aggressively pursued by the Colombian government to reduce the amount of land that agricultural households in the Andean country devote to this illegal crop. However, little work has been done to assess the causal effect of the policy on land allocation decisions. I use a six year panel of observations covering the entire country for the years 2001-2006 to estimate this effect at the municipality level, exploiting exogenous sources of variation in eradication and taking an IV approach to estimation. The instruments are derived from changes in the expected cost of coca eradication as crews get far from the zone where Antinarcotics Police helicopters can protect them from the illegal armed groups that try to shoot them down. IV estimation shows that the causal effect of a one percent increase in eradication is slightly less than a one percent increase in coca cultivation.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Agricultural Development; Coca; Cocaine; Colombia; Illegal Crops; crime
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O17 - Formal and Informal Sectors ; Shadow Economy ; Institutional Arrangements; K - Law and Economics > K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior > K42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

References

ANGRIST, J. D., and A. D. KUGLER (2008): "Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia," Review of Economics and Statistics, 90, 191-215.

BIGWOOD, J., and P. COFFIN (2005): "Coca Eradication."

CLEMENS, J. (2008): "Opium in Afghanistan: Prospects for the Success of Source Country Drug Control Policies," Journal of Law & Economics, 51, 407-432.

DAMMERT, A. C. (2008): "Child Labor and Schooling Response to Changes in Coca Production in Rural Peru," Journal of Development Economics, 86, 164-180.

DION, M. L., and K. RUSSLER (2008): "Eradication Efforts, the State, Displacement and Poverty: Explaining Coca Cultivation in Colombia During Plan Colombia," Journal of Latin American Studies, 40, 399-421.

IBANEZ, M., AND FREDRIK CARLSSON (2010): "A Survey-Based Choice Experiment on Coca Cultivation," Journal of Development Economics, 93, 249-263.

JOHNSON, R. S., S. KANTOR, and P. V. FISHBACK 2007): "Striking at the Roots of Crime: The Impact of Social Welfare Spending on Crime During the Great Depression," National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

KLICK, J., and A. TABARROK (2005): "Using Terror Alert Levels to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," Journal of Law & Economics, 48, 267-79.

KUROSAKI, T., and M. FAFCHAMPS (2002): "Insurance Market Efficiency and Crop Choices in Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, 67, 419-453.

LEVITT, S. D. (1997): "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," American Economic Review, 87, 270-90. — (2002): "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply," American Economic Review, 92, 1244-1250.

LUNA, A. O. (2007): "Servicio Aéreo Policía Nacional," Bogotá.

MCCRARY, J. (2002): "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime: Comment," American Economic Review, 92, 1236-1243.

MORDUCH, J. (1995): "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9, 103-14.

MORENO-SANCHEZ, R., D. S. KRAYBILL, and S. R. THOMPSON (2003): "An Econometric Analysis of Coca Eradication Policy in Colombia," World Development, 31, 375-383.

MOULTON, B. R. (1986): "Random Group Effects and the Precision of Regression Estimates," Journal of Econometrics, 32, 385-397.

PETERSON, S. (2002): "People and Ecosystems in Colombia: Casualties of the Drug War," Independent Review, 6, 427-40.

PINTO BORREGO, M. E., A. VERGARA BALLEN, and Y. LAHUERTA

PERCIPIANO (2005): "Costos Generados Por La Violencia Armada En Colombia: 1993-2003," Bogota: Departamento de Planeación Nacional.

ROSENZWEIG, M. R., and H. P. BINSWANGER (1993): "Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments," Economic Journal, 103, 56-78.

SHORE-SHEPPARD, L. (1996): "The Precision of Instrumental Variables Estimates with Grouped Data," Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.

THOUMI, F. E. (2002): "Illegal Drugs in Colombia: From Illegal Economic Boom to Social Crisis," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 582, 102-116.

UNODC (2005): "World Drug Report 2005," New York: United Nations.

UNODC(2006): "Características Agroculturales De Los Cultivos De Coca En Colombia," Bogota: United Nations Office on Drug and Crime

UNODC(2006a): "Colombia Coca Cultivation Survey 2006," Bogota: United Nations Office on Drug and Crime.

UNODC (2006b): "World Drug Report 2006," New York: United Nations.

UNODC (2008): "Organizaciones Que Cambian Vidas," Bogotá.

UNODC (2009a): "Colombia Coca Cultivation Survey 2009," Bogota: United Nations Office on Drug and Crime.

UNODC (2009b): "World Drug Report 2009," New York: United Nations.

UNODC (2010): "World Drug Report 2010," New York: United Nations.

USDS (2004): "International Narcotics Control Strategy Report," USDS, Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs.

VARGAS MANRIQUE, C. E. (2004): "Cultivos Ilícitos Y Erradicación Forzosa En Colombia," Cuadernos de Economía, 23, 109-41.