The Definition, Dating and Duration of Cycles

Harding, Don (1997): The Definition, Dating and Duration of Cycles.

Abstract

The ultimate objective of this paper is to discuss the duration of business cycles and the related issue of the probability of recession. To reach that objective it is necessary to first agree on a definition of business cycles. It is also necessary to agree on how to define the key features of business cycles and to agree on the rules for identifying and dating these key features. Although not strictly necessary for this paper, it is also helpful to discuss why we seek to identify and date key features of the business cycles.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Institution: The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute
• Language: English
• Keywords: Business cycle; recession; business cycle dating; probability of recession
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

References

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