Real Exchange Rate Behavior: New Evidence with Linear and Non-linear Endogenous Break(s)

Chan, Tze-Haw and Chong, Lee Lee and Khong, Wye Leong Roy (2008): Real Exchange Rate Behavior: New Evidence with Linear and Non-linear Endogenous Break(s).

Abstract

Using monthly frequency data from 1981 to 2005, we test for the potential mean reversion of Japan-US real exchange rates using newly improved unit root tests allowing for endogenous (unknown) break(s) in the linear as well as non-linear manner. Both countries have contributed vital proportion in global trading on top of being the major trading partner to each other since 1960s. We identify structural breaks in 1985 and 1994 respectively via the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997)’s linear test, but the results were against the PPP hypothesis. The Saikkonen and LÄutkepohl, (2002)’s test, however, provides sufficient supports for non-linear adjustment of real exchange towards long run PPP. In addition, stronger evidence for PPP is found in the post-1994 period, in conjunction with the small persistence of real exchange deviations (half-life less than a year). Also, the exchange rate misalignment is less evident after the Plaza Accord 1985. In brief, our findings reveal that the Japanese authority has shown some form of PPP-oriented rule as a basis for their exchange rate policies, in the presence of structural break(s) and non-linearity.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Real Exchange Rates, Endogenous Breaks, Non-linearity, Half-life
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General; N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics ; Industrial Structure ; Growth ; Fluctuations > N15 - Asia including Middle East; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange

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