Water Scarcity and Rioting: Disaggregated Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Almer, Christian and Laurent-Lucchetti, Jérémy and Oechslin, Manuel (2015): Water Scarcity and Rioting: Disaggregated Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa.

Abstract

It is often purported that unusually dry conditions provoke riots by intensifying the competition for water. The present paper explores this hypothesis, using data from Sub-Saharan Africa. We rely on monthly data at the cell level (0.5x0.5 degrees), an approach that is tailored to the fact that riots are short-lived and local events. Using a drought index to proxy for deviations of the actual climatic water balance from the normal one, we find that a one-standard-deviation fall in the index (signaling drier conditions) raises the likelihood of a riot in a given cell and month by 8.5 percent. We further observe that the effect of unusual dryness is substantially larger in cells that combine a low supply of blue water with significant agricultural activity, a finding that supports the relevance of the water-competition mechanism.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Conflict, riots, water scarcity, disaggregated data
• Subjects: D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D74 - Conflict ; Conflict Resolution ; Alliances ; Revolutions; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O13 - Agriculture ; Natural Resources ; Energy ; Environment ; Other Primary Products; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O17 - Formal and Informal Sectors ; Shadow Economy ; Institutional Arrangements

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