Halicioglu, Ferda (2004): The Gibson Paradox: An Empirical Investigation for Turkey. Published in: European Research Studies Journal , Vol. 7, No. 1-2 (2004): pp. 111-119.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_3556.pdf Download (66kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper tests the existence of Gibson paradox using the traditional and modern time series techniques in the case of annual Turkish data. Even though the results from the traditional Gibson paradox regression suggested a positive relationship between the interest rates and the prices levels in Turkish data, subsequently it was proven to be spurious. On analyzing the time series properties of the variables and the results from the Johansen cointegration procedure, we reveal that there is no support of the Gibson paradox in Turkish data.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | The Gibson Paradox: An Empirical Investigation for Turkey |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Gibson paradox; co-integration; Turkey |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E50 - General E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates |
Item ID: | 3556 |
Depositing User: | Ferda HALICIOGLU |
Date Deposited: | 13 Jun 2007 |
Last Modified: | 28 Sep 2019 00:26 |
References: | Atkins, F. J. and A. Serletis, (2003), “Bounds Tests of the Gibson Paradox and the Fisher Effect: Evidence from Low-Frequency International Data” Manchester School, 71(6), 673-679. Akaike, H. (1973), “Information Theory and the Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle”, In: Proceeding of the Second International Symposium on Information Theory, B. N. Petrow and F. Csaki (eds), Budapest, 267-281. Barlett, M. S. (1946), “On the Theoretical Specifaction and Sampling Properties of Autocorrelated Time Series”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, (Supplement), 9, 27-85. Barsky, R. B. (1987), “The Fisher Hypothesis and Forecastability and Persistence of Inflation”, Journal of Econometrics, 19(January), 3-24. Barsky, R.B., and L. H. Summers, (1988), “ Gibson Paradox and the Gold Standard”, Journal of Political Economy, 96(3), 528-549. Benjamin, D. K. and L. K. Kochin (1984), “ War, Prices and Interest Rates: A Martial Solution to Gibson’s Paradox” in M. D. Bordo and J. Schwartz (eds) A Retrospective on Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931. Chicago: Chicago University Press. Cagan, P. (1965). Determinants and Effects of Changes in the Stock of Money 1875-1960. New York: Columbia University Press. Corbae, D. and S. Ouliaris, (1989), “A random Walk Through the Gibson Paradox”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4, 295-303. Dickey, D. A. and W. A Fuller, (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autogressive Time Series with a Unit Root”. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072. Dowd, K. and B. Harrison, (2000), “The Gibson Paradox and the Gold Standard: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1821-1913”, Applied Economics Letters, 7, 711-713. Dwyer, G. P. (1984), “The Gibson Paradox: A Cross-Country Analysis”, Economica, 51, 109-127. Engle, R.F. and C.W.J. Granger (1987), “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251-276. Fisher, I. (1930) The Theory of Interest, New York: Macmillan. Friedman, M. and A. J. Schwartz, (1982) Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom. Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867-1975. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Gibson, A. H. (1923) “The Future Course of High Class Investment Values”. Banker’s Magazine (London), 115(January), 15-34. Gonzalo, J. (1994) “Five Alternative Methods of Estimating Long-Run Equilibrium Relationships”, Journal of Econometrics 60(1/2), 203-233. Granger, C. W. J. (1997) “On Modeling the Long-run in Applied Economics”, Economic Journal 107(440), 169-177. Johansen, S., and Juselius, K. (1992), “Testing Structural Hypotheses in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis at the Purchasing Power Parity and the Uncovered Interest Parity for the UK”, Journal of Econometrics, 53(2), 211-244. Johansen, S. (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models”, Econometrica, 59(6), 1551-1580. Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical and Hypothesis Testing of Co-integration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12(2), 231-254. Keynes, J.M. (1930), Treatise of Money, Vol. II, New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company. Kitchin, J. (1923), “Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 5, 10-16. Klein, L. R. (1995), “An Economic Interpretation of the Gibson Relationship”, Atlantic Economic Journal, 23(3), 159-176. Lee, Chi-Wen J. and C. R. Petruzzi, (1986), “The Gibson Paradox and the Monetary Standard”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 68, 189-196. MacKinnon, J. G. (1991) Critical Values for Cointegrating Tests. In: R.F. Engle and C. W. J. Granger (eds) Long-run Relationships, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 267-276. Mills, T.C. (1990), “A Note on the Gibson Paradox During the Gold Standard”, Explorations in Economic History, 27, 277-286. Muscattelli, V. A. and F. Spinelli, (1996), “Gibson’s Paradox and Policy Regimes: A Comparison of the Experience in the US, UK and Italy”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 43(4), 468-492. Newey, W. K. and K.D. West (1987), “A Simple Positive Semi-Definitive Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix”, Econometrica, 55, 703-708. Peake, E.G. (1928). Bankers Magazine (London), 125, 720. Phillips, P. C. B. and P. Perron, (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75, 335-346. Phillips, P.C.B. (1986), “Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 33, 311-340. Sargent, T. J. (1973), “Interest Rates and Prices in the Long Run: A Study of Gibson Paradox” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 4(February), 385-449. Schwarz, G. (1978), “ Estimating the Dimensions of a Model”, Annals of Statistics, 6, 461-464. Serletis, A. and G. Zestoes, (1999), “On the Gibson Paradox”, Review of International Economics, 7(1), 117-125. Shiller, R. J. and J. J. Siegel, (1977), “The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real Interest Rates”, Journal of Political Economy, 85(5), 891-907. Sinha, N. (2002), “Gibson Paradox, Trend-Stationarity and Interest Rate Targetting: An Econometric Analysis”, The Indian Economic Journal, 50(1), 63-69. Sumner, S. (1993), “The Role of the Gold Standard in the Gibson Paradox”, Bulletin of Economic Research, 45(3), 215-228. Tooke, T. (1844). An Inquiry into the Currency Principle. London: Longman, Brown, Green and Longmans. White, H. (1980), “A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity”, Ekonometrica, 50, 1-25. Wickshell, K. (1936), Interest and Prices: A Study of the Causes Regulating the Value of Money (English Translation) London: Macmillan. William, J. M. and N. T. Walter, (1984), “Long-term Interest Rates and Price Level: the Canadian Evidence on the Gibson Paradox”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 17(2), 327-339. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/3556 |