Travaglini, Guido (2011): Climate change: where is the hockey stick? evidence from millennial-scale reconstructed and updated temperature time series.
Download (344kB) | Preview
The goal of this paper is to test on a millennial scale the magnitude of the recent warmth period, known as the “hockey-stick”, and the relevance of the causative anthropogenic climate change hypothesis advanced by several academics and worldwide institutions. A select batch of ten long-term climate proxies, included in the NOAA 92 PCN dataset all of which running well into the nineties, is updated to the year 2011 by means of a Time-Varying Parameter Kalman Filter SISO model for state prediction. This procedure is applied by appropriately selecting as observable one out of the HADSST2 and of the HADCRUT3 series of instrumental temperature anomalies available since the year 1850. The updated proxy series are thereafter individually tested for the values and time location of their four maximum non-neighboring attained temperatures. The results are at best inconclusive, since three of the updated series, including Michael Mann’s celebrated and controversial tree-ring reconstructions, do not refute the hypothesis, while the others quite significantly point to different dates of maximum temperature achievements into the past centuries, in particular those associated to the Medieval Warm Period.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Climate change: where is the hockey stick? evidence from millennial-scale reconstructed and updated temperature time series.|
|Keywords:||Climate Change; Hockey Stick Controversy; Time Series; Kalman Filter|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming
|Depositing User:||Guido Travaglini|
|Date Deposited:||25 Dec 2011 21:57|
|Last Modified:||23 Nov 2016 03:30|
Abdussamatov H. (2004) About the Long-Term Coordinated Variations of the Activity, Radius, Total Irradiance of the Sun and the Earth’s Climate, International Astronomical Union, DOI: 10.1017/S1743921304006775, 541-542.
Alanko-Huotari, K., I.G. Usoskin, K. Mursula, and Kovaltsov G.A. (2006) Global Heliospheric Parameters and Cosmic Ray Modulation: an Empirical Relation for the Last Decades, Solar Physics, 238, 391-404.
Anderson B.D.O. and Moore J.B. (2005) Optimal Filtering, Dover Publications.
Aoki M. (1990) State space modeling of time series, Springer-Verlag.
Appenzeller C., Stocker T.F. and Anktin M. (1998) North Atlantic Oscillation Dynamics Recorded in Greenland Ice Cores, Science, 282, 446-449.
Baliunas S. and Soon W. (2003) Lessons and Limits of Climate History: Was the 20th. Century Climate Unusual?, The George C. Marshall Institute, Washington D.C.
Banerjee A., Marcellino M. and Masten I. (2005) Leading Indicators for Euro-area Inflation and GDP Growth, Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics, 67, 785-813.
Bard E. and Frank M. (2006) Climate Change and Solar Variability: What’s new Under the Sun?, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 248, 1-14.
Bradley R.S. (1999) Paleoclimatology: Reconstructing Climates of the Quaternary, Harcourt Academic Press, San Diego, CA.
Bradley R.S., Briffa K.R., Crowley T. J., Hughes M. K., Jones P.D. and Mann M.E. (2001) Scope of Medieval Warming, Science, 292, 2011-2012.
Briffa K.R., Jones P.D. and Schweingruber F.H. (1994) Summer Temperatures across Northern North America: Regional Reconstructions from 1760 Using Tree-ring Densities, Journal of Geophysical Research, 99, 835-25.
Briffa, K.R., Osborn T. J., Schweingruber F. H., Harris I. C., Jones P. D., Shiyatov S. G., and Vaganov E. A. (2001) Low-frequency Temperature Variations from a Northern Tree-ring Density Network, Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 2929-2941.
Briffa KR, Osborn T. J. and Schweingruber F.H (2003) Large-scale Temperature Inferences from Tree Rings: a Review, Global and Planetary Change 40, 11-26, DOI:10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00095-X.
Brohan P., Kennedy J.J., Harris I., Tett S.F.B. and Jones P.D. (2006) Uncertainty Estimates in Regional and Global Observed Temperature Changes: a new Dataset from 1850, Geophysical Research, 111, DOI:10.1029/2005JD006548.
Bürger G., (2007) Comment on the Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 316/5833, 1844.
Choudry T. and Wu H. (2008) Forecasting Ability of GARCH vs Kalman Filter Method: Evidence from Daily UK Time-Varying Beta, Journal of Forecasting, 27, 670-689.
Crowley, T.J. and. North G.R (1991) Paleoclimatology, Oxford University Press.
Crowley, T.J. (2000) Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years, Science, 289, 270-277.
Crowley, T. J. and T. Lowery, 2000, How Warm Was the Medieval Warm Period? Ambio, 29, 51-54.
D'Arrigo, R., Wilson R., and Jacoby G. (2006) On the Long-Term Context for Late Twentieth Century Warming, Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D03103, DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006352.
Dickey, D.A. and Fuller W.A. (1979) Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427–431.
Engle R. and Granger C.W. (1987) Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimate, and Testing, Econometrica, 55, 251–276.
Esper, J., Cook E.R. and Schweingruber F.H. (2002) Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability, Science, 295, 2250-2253.
Esper J. and Frank D. (2009) The IPCC on a Heterogeneous Medieval Warm Period, Climatic Change, 94, 267–273.
Evans M.N., Kaplan A. and Cane M.A. (2002) Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Field Reconstruction from Coral δ18O Data Using Reduced Space Objective Analysis, Paleoceanography, 17, DOI:10.1029/2000PA000590.
Folland C.K., Karl T.R., Christy J.R., Clarke R.A., Gruza G.V., Jouzel J., Mann M.E., Oerlemans J., Salinger M.J. and Wang S.W. (2001) Observed Climate Variability and Change, in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton J.T. et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 99-181.
Fouka P., Fröhlich C., Spruit H. and Wigley T.M. (2006) Variations in Solar Luminosity and their Effect on the Earth's Climate, Nature, 443, 161-166.
Fritts H.C., Blasing T.J., Hayden B.P. and Kutzbach J.E. (1971) Multivariate Techniques for Specifying Tree-growth and Climate Relationships and for Reconstructing Anomalies in Paleoclimate, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 10, 845-864.
Fritts, H.C. (1991) Reconstructing Large-scale Climatic Patterns from Tree-Ring Data, The University of Arizona Press.
Graham N.E., Ammann C.M., Fleitmann D., Cobb K.M., and Luterbacher J. (2010) Support for Global Climate Reorganization during the "Medieval Climate Anomaly", Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0914-z.
Gray W.M., Sheaffer J.D. and Landsea C.W. (1997) Climate Trends Associated with Multidecadal Variability of Atlantic Hurricane Activity, in Diaz H.F. and Pulwarty R.S. eds., Hurricanes: Climate and Socioeconomic Impacts, Springer-Verlag, New York, N.Y., 15-53.
Grimble M.J. (2006) Robust Industrial Control Systems: Optimal Design Approach for Polynomial Systems, Wiley.
Hamilton J.D. (1994) Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press.
Hantemirov, R.M. and Shiyatov S.G. (2002) A Continuous Multimillennial Ring-width Chronology in Yamal, Northwestern Siberia, Holocene 12, 717-726.
Hendy, E. J., Gagan M. K., Alibert C. A., McCulloch M. T., Lough J. M. and Isdale P.J. (2002) Abrupt Decrease in Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Salinity at End of Little Ice Age, Science, 295, 1511-154.
IPCC (2001) Third Assessment Report, (2007) Fourth Assessment Report.
Johansen S. (1988) Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
Johansen S. (1991) Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models, Econometrica, 59, 1551-1580.
Jones P.D., Osborn T.J., and Briffa K.R. (2001) The Evolution of Climate Over the Last Millennium, Science, 292, 662-667.
Kalman R.E. (1960) A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems, Transactions of the ASME – Journal of Basic Engineering, 82, 35-45.
Loso, M.G. (2008) Summer Temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age Inferred from Varved Proglacial Lake Sediments in Southern Alaska, Journal of Paleolimnology 41, 117-128, DOI: 10.1007/s10933-008-9264-9.
Ljung L. (1999) System Identification. Theory For the User, Prentice Hall.
Mann M.E., Bradley R.S. and Hughes M.K. (1998) Global-scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing Over the Past Six Centuries, Nature, 392, 779-787.
Mann M.E., Bradley R.S. and Hughes M.K. (1999) Northern Hemisphere Temperature During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties and Limitations, Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 759-762.
Mann M.E., Zhang Z., Hughes M.K., Bradley R.S., Miller S.K., Rutherford S., and Ni F. (2008) Proxy-based Reconstructions of Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Variations Over the Past Two Millennia, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105, 13252-13257.
Mann M.E., Zhang Z., Rutherford S., Bradley R.S., Hughes M.K., Shindell D., Ammann C., Faluvegi G., and Ni F. (2009) Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 326, 1256-1260.
Mann M.E., Bradley R.S. and Hughes M.K. (2009b) Reply to McIntyre and McKitrick: Proxy-based Temperature Reconstructions are Robust, Letter in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, E11.
Marcellino M. (2006) Leading Indicators, in: Elliott, G., Granger, C.W.J., Timmermann, A. (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
McIntyre S. and McKitrick R. (2005) The M&M Critique of the MBH98 Northern Hemisphere Climate Index: Update and Implications, Energy and Environment, 16, 69-100.
McIntyre S. and McKitrick R. (2009) Proxy Inconsistency and Other Problems in Millennial Paleoclimate Reconstructions, Letter in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, E10.
Moberg, A., Sonechkin D.M., Holmgren K., Datsenko N.M. and Karlén W. (2005) Highly Variable Northern Hemisphere Temperatures Reconstructed from Low- and High-resolution Proxy Data, Nature 433:613-617.
Montford A.W. (2010) The Hockey Stick Illusion, Climategate and the Corruption of Science, Stacey International, London UK.
Moore, J.J., Hughen K.A., Miller G.H. and Overpeck J.T. (2001) Little Ice Age Recorded in Summer Temperatures from Varved Sediments of Donard Lake, Baffin Island, Canada, Journal of Paleolimnology 25, 503-517, DOI: 10.1023/A:1011181301514.
National Research Council (2006) Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the last 2,000 Years, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
O'Brien, S.R., Mayewski P.A, Meeker L.D., Meese D.A., Twickler M.S. and Whitlow S.I. (1995) Complexity of Holocene Climate as Reconstructed from a Greenland Ice Core, Science, 270, 1962-1964.
Rayner, N.A., Brohan P., Parker D.E., Folland C.K., Kennedy J.J., Vanicek M., Ansell T. and Tett S.F.B. (2006) Improved Analyses of Changes and Uncertainties in Marine Temperature Measured in Situ Since the Mid-nineteenth Century: the HadSST2 Dataset. J. Climate, 19, 446-469.
Rutherford S., Mann M.E., Osborn T.J., Bradley R.S., Briffa, K.R., Hughes M.K., and Jones, P.D. (2005) Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Method, Predictor Network, Target Season, and Target Domain, Journal of Climate, 18, 2308-2329.
Salzer, M.W. and Kipfmueller K.F. (2005) Reconstructed Temperature and Precipitation on a Millennial Timescale from Tree-Rings in the Southern Colorado Plateau, U.S.A., Climatic Change 70, 465-487, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-005-5922-3.
Shaviv N. (2005) On Climate Response to Changes in the Cosmic Ray Flux and Radiative Budget, Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, 1-15.
Shindell D.T., Schmidt G.A., Mann E.M. and Faluvegi G. (2004) Dynamic Winter Climate Response to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions since 1600, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D05104, 1-12.
Svensmark H. and Frijs-Christensen E. (2007) Reply to Lockwood and Fröhlich. The Persistent Role of the Sun in Climate Forcing, Danish National Space Center Scientific Report 3.
Tand, M., Liu T.S., Hou J., Qin X., Zhang H. and Li T. (2003) Cyclic Rapid Warming on Cntennial-scale Revealed by a 2650-year Stalagmite Record of Warm Season Temperature, Geophysical Research Letters 30, 1617, DOI: 10.1029/2003GL017352.
Trouet, V., Esper J., Graham N.E., Baker A., Scourse J.D. and Frank D.C. (2009) Persistent Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Mode Dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 324, 78-80.
Usoskin I.G., Mursula K., Solanki S., Schüssler M. and Alanko-Huotari K. (2004a) Reconstruction of Solar Activity for the Last Millennium using Data, Astronomy and Astrophysics, 413, 745-751.
Usoskin I.G., Mursula K., Solanki S., Schüssler M. and Alanko-Huotari K. (2004b) Millennium-Scale Sunspot Number Reconstruction: Evidence for an Unusually Active Sun since the 1940s, Physical Review Letters, 91, 211101:1-4.
Usoskin I.G., Solanki S.K. and Korte M. (2006) Solar Activity Reconstructed over the Last 7000 years: The Influence of Geomagnetic Field Changes, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L08103, 1-4.
von Storch H., Zorita E., Jones J.M., Dimitriev Y., González-Rouco F. and Tett S.F.B. (2004) Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data, Science, 306, 679-682.
Wahl, E.R., Anderson D.M., Bauer B.A., Buckner R., Gille E.P., Gross W.S., Hartman M., and Shah A. (2010) An Archive of High-resolution Temperature Reconstructions over the past 2+ Millennia, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. G3, 11, Q01001, DOI: 10.1029/2009GC002817.
Wegman E.J., Scott D.W., and Said Y.H. (2006) Ad Hoc Committee Report on the “Hockey Stick” Global Climate Reconstruction, U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Washington, D.C.