A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey

Halicioglu, Ferda (2007): A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey.

Abstract

This study seeks to validity of the export-led growth hypothesis using quarterly data from 1980 to 2005. The bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to test the causal relationship between industrial production, exports and terms of trade. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented to identify the direction of relationship among the variables both in the short-run and the long-run. The empirical findings suggest uni-directional causation from exports to industrial production.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Institution: Department of Economics, Yeditepe University
• Language: English
• Keywords: Export-led growth; causality; cointegration; Turkey
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General

References

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