Campbell, Douglas L. (2012): Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade Using a Dynamic Gravity Framework.
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Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? This paper reexamines time series estimates of currency unions on trade from a historical perspective using a dynamic gravity equation and by conducting in-depth case studies of currency union breakups. The early large estimates are sensitive to dynamic specifications, and were driven by omitted variables, as many breakups were caused by warfare, communist takeovers, coup d'etats and other major geopolitical events. The methodology has general applicability for the use of gravity equations in policy analysis, and yields an imprecise point estimate of currency unions on trade close to one percent.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade Using a Dynamic Gravity Framework|
|Keywords:||Currency Unions, Trade, Dynamic Gravity, Decolonization|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F10 - General
F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy > F54 - Colonialism ; Imperialism ; Postcolonialism
|Depositing User:||Doug Campbell|
|Date Deposited:||05. Mar 2012 02:39|
|Last Modified:||19. Feb 2013 14:05|
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