Combating eutrophication in coastal areas at risk for oil spills

Hyytiäinen, Kari and Huhtala, Anni (2011): Combating eutrophication in coastal areas at risk for oil spills. Forthcoming in: Annals of Operations Research No. DOI 10.1007/s10479-011-0879-2

Abstract

In this study we evaluate the profitability of nutrient abatement measures in eutrophied coastal areas exposed to a risk of frequent oil spills. The case studied is the Gulf of Finland, which forms part of the Baltic Sea.We present a dynamic model that integrates land loads of nitrogen and phosphorus, cost of nutrient abatement measures in agriculture, nutrient dynamics in the sea basins adjoining the Finnish coast, exogenous risk of oil spills, and recreational value of the sea, which faces environmental damage of uncertain magnitude and duration. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to evaluate the profitability of nutrient abatement measures carried out unilaterally by Finland or as a joint effort by Estonia, Finland and Russia.We demonstrate that a high exogenous risk of oil damage may render investments in nutrient abatement economically infeasible. On the other hand, several components of the model entail uncertainties owing to the scarcity of data and our limited understanding of the relationship between the ecological processes involved and the values people place on natural resources. For example, the uncertainties related to the curvature of the value function outweigh the uncertainties connected with the oil spills and their potential consequences.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: nutrient abatement measures; probability; Monte Carlo simulation; recreation; valuation
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q52 - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs ; Distributional Effects ; Employment Effects; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q53 - Air Pollution ; Water Pollution ; Noise ; Hazardous Waste ; Solid Waste ; Recycling; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C15 - Statistical Simulation Methods: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis; D - Microeconomics > D6 - Welfare Economics > D61 - Allocative Efficiency ; Cost-Benefit Analysis

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