Raihan, Selim and Razzaque, Mohammad A (2007): WTO and regional trade negotiation outcomes: quantitative assessments of potential implications on Bangladesh. Published in: (June 2007)
Download (1MB) | Preview
Despite being somewhat paradoxical, the world has in recent times witnessed ambitious multilateral trade negotiations along with a proliferation of regional trading blocs. Almost all countries are now involved in both types of trading arrangements, with Bangladesh actively participating in several important trade talks under the World Trade Oganisation (WTO) alongside its commitments to the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA). Different multilateral and regional trade negotiations have, however, different implications. For example, while the liberalisation of global agricultural trade – by reducing subsidies in rich countries and thereby causing prices to rise – will benefit many developing country farmers, it may hurl a formidable challenge for the net food importing countries in ensuring food security for their poor populations. Similarly, WTO negotiations in non-agricultural goods aim at improving market access for many, but for the least developed countries, including Bangladesh, currently enjoying tariff preferences in a large range of products in major markets, the ensuing outcomes could lead to preference erosion, undermining their competitiveness. Regional trading arrangements can also be challenging as they tend to replace global imports with less efficient regional supplies resulting in adverse welfare consequences.
Effective trade negotiations partly depend on a priori assessments of possible negotiation outcomes. As such, it is very important to provide the policymakers and trade negotiators with informed inputs on the potential implications of negotiating issues. Since trade negotiations comprise subject matters of conflicting interests – often amongst countries at comparable levels of development that otherwise share and support similar views and positions – only country-specific objective analyses based on appropriate research methods can inform the negotiators in the best possible way. This book is an endeavour in that direction. It focuses on some of the major issues in the on-going multilateral and regional trade negotiations, and employs state-of-the-art analytical tools to empirically assess their likely implications for Bangladesh. While the analyses and results presented would be useful for policymakers and trade negotiators, this volume would also be of interest to trade analysts involved in empirical research.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||WTO and regional trade negotiation outcomes: quantitative assessments of potential implications on Bangladesh|
|Keywords:||WTO; SAFTA; CGE model; Bangladesh|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods ; Programming Models ; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
|Depositing User:||Selim Raihan|
|Date Deposited:||30. Apr 2012 13:31|
|Last Modified:||08. Sep 2015 08:24|
Ahmed, S., and Satter, Z. (2004), ‘Impact of Trade Liberalisation Looking at the Evidence’, Economics and Political weekly, September 4, 2004.
Annabi, N., Khondker, B., Raihan, S., Cockburn, J., and Decaluwé, B. (2006), “WTO Agreements and Domestic Policy Reforms – Implications for Poverty in Bangladesh: A Study in a Dynamic Sequential CGE Framework.” in Hertel, T. and Winters, A. (eds.) Poverty and the WTO: Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda, The World Bank and the Palgrave Macmillan, Washington DC.
BBS (2000a), Household Income and Expenditure Survey 1999–2000. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics: Ministry of Planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.
BBS (2000b), Labour Force Survey 1999–2000. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics: Ministry of Planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.
BBS (2002), Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh 2002. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics: Ministry of Planning, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.
Beghin J.C., Roland-Holst D. and van der Mensbrugghe D. (2002), “Global agricultural trade and the Doha Round: what are the implications for North and South?” Working Paper 02-WP 308, CARD, Iowa State University.
BGMEA (2006), Bangladesh Garments Manufacturers and Exporters Association, Newsletter, January, 2006
Bhattachariya, D. and Rahman, M. (2000a), “Experience With Implementation of WTO-ATC and Implications for Bangladesh”, CPD Occasional Paper Series, No. 7, Centre for Policy Dialogue, Dhaka, September.
Bhattachariya, D. and Rahman, M. (2000b), “USA Trade and Development Act 2000: A Response From Bangladesh Perspective”, CPD Occasional Paper Series, No. 6, Centre for Policy Dialogue, Dhaka, July.
Blanchet, T., Razzaque, A. and Biswas, H. (2005), “Documenting the Undocumented: Female Migrant Workers from Bangladesh”, Mimeo, Academy for Educational Development and SWISS Agency for Development Cooperation.
Bouët, A., Fontagné, L., Jean, S. (2005), “Is Erosion of Tariff Preferences a Serious Concern?” Working paper 14, CEPII, Paris
Brenton, P., and Ikezuki, T. (2005), “The Impact of Agricultural Trade Preferences, with Particular Attention to the LDCs.” In Aksoy, A. and Beghin, J. (eds.) Global Agricultural Trade and the Developing Countries, Washington DC: World Bank
Bridges (2005), Weekly Trade News Digest, 15 December 2005, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development.
Centad (2005), South Asian Yearbook of Trade and Development, Centre for Trade and Development, New Delhi.
Chang, W. and Winters, L. A. (1999), “How Regional Blocs Affect Excluded Countries: The Price Effects of MERCOSUR,” CEPR Discussion Papers 2179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
Cordella, T. and Ulku, H. (2004), “Grants versus Loans,” IMF Working Paper No. 04/161, International Monetary Fund, Washington.
Curran, L. Nilsson, L. and Frontini, G. (2006), “Multilateral trade liberalisation and the potential for preference erosion in the EU market." Paper presented at the 8th Annual ETSG Conference, Vienna, Austria. September.
CUTS (2004), “Movement of Natural Persons: A Case Study of South Asian Countries”, Mimeo, Jaipur, India.
Diao X., Somwaru A. and Roe T. (2001), “A Global Analysis of Agricultural Trade Reform in WTO Member Countries”, Economic Development Center Paper, University of Minnesota
Dimaranan B.V., Hertel T. and Keeney R. (2003), “OECD Domestic Support and the Developing Countries”, GTAP Working Paper 19.
Dimaranan, B. V. and McDougall, R.A. (2002), “Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 5 Data Base”, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University.
Elbehri A. and Leetmaa S. (2002), “How significant are export subsidies to agricultural trade? Trade and welfare implications of global reforms”, 5th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, June 5-7, Taipei.
Feria, R.P., Kabir, N., Syed, A., Haque, M., and Wahab, A. (2003), “Preparing the SME and Medium Enterprise Development and Export Expansion Program”, TA 3879-BAN, Work in Process Draft, Asian Development Bank, May 2003.
Francois J. and C. R. Shiells (1994), Modeling Trade Policy: Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of North American Free Trade, Cambridge.
Francois, J., Hoekman, B., and Manchin, M. (2005). “Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade Liberalization,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3730, October 2005.
François, J., van Meijl, H., and van Tongeren, F. (2003), “Trade Liberalisation and Developing Countries under the Doha Round.” Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2003-060/2, University of Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Goldstein, M. and Khan, M.S. (1985), “Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade.”, in R.W. Jones and Kenen, P.B (eds) Handbook of International Economics, Vol. 2. Amsterdam, Elsevier.
Hammouda, H. B., Karingi, S.N., Oulmane, N, and Jallab, M.S. (2006), “Market access for non-agricultural products, The impact of the Doha Round on African economies: A simulation exercise”, A paper presented in the 9th GTAP Conference, Addis Ababa.
Haque, M. (2003), “Diagnostic Review of Selected Public Sector Institutions”, Paper prepared for the Asian Development Bank.
Harrison, W. J. and Pearson, K R. (1996), “Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK,” Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May
Hertel T., Anderson, K., Francois J. and Martin W. (2000), “Agriculture and non-agricultural liberalisation in the Millennium round”, CIES Policy Discussion Paper 0016, University of Adelaide, Australia.
Hertel, T.W. (1997), Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Hoekman, B. (2005), “Preference Erosion and the Doha Development Agenda”, World Bank and CEPR. November 1, 2005.
Hoekman, B., Ng, F. and Olarreaga, M. (2002), ‘Tariff Peaks in the Quad and Least Developed Country Exports’, World Bank Economic Review 16:1-22
International Trade Center (2000), “Business Guide to General Agreement on Trade in Services”, revised edition, Commonwealth Secretariat, London
Low, P., Piermartini, R. and Richtering, J. (2005), “Multilateral Solutions to the Erosion of Non-Reciprocal Preferences in NAMA”, Working Paper ERSD-2005-05, World Trade Organization, Economic Research and Statistics Division.
Martin, W. and Winters, L. A. (1996), “The Uruguay Round: A Milestone for Developing Countries”, in Martin, W. and Winters, L.A. (eds), The Uruguay Round and the Developing Countries, Cambridge University Press.
McCulloch, N., Winters, L.A. and Cirera, X. (2001), Trade Liberalization and Poverty: A Handbook. Centre for Economic Policy Research. London.
Mlachila, M and Yang, Y. (2004), “The end of Textiles Quotas: A case Study of the Impact on Bangladesh’, IMF Working Paper, WP/04/108, Washington, DC.
Muscatelli, V.A., Srinivasan, T.G. and Vines, D. (1992), “Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong”, Economic Journal, vol.102, pp. 1467-77.
Muscatelli, V.A., Srinivasan, T.G. and Vines, D. (1994), “The Empirical Modelling of NIE exports: An Evaluation of Different Approaches”, Journal of Development Studies, vol.30, pp.279-302.
Muscatelli, V.A., Stevenson, A.A., and Montagna, C. (1995), “Modelling Aggregate Manufactured Exports for Some Asian Newly Industrialising Economies”, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 77, no. 1, pp.147-155.
Naik, G. (2005), “Tackling Agricultural Subsidies in WTO Negotiations”, in South Asian Yearbook of Trade and Development 2005, Centad, New Delhi.
Newfarmer, R. and Nowak, D. (2006), “The World Bank in Trade: The New Trade Agenda” in Newfarmer, R. (ed.). Trade, Doha and Development: A Window into the Issues. Washington DC: The World Bank.
OECD (2006), “The Development Dimension: Aid for Trade, Making It Effective”, Preliminary Version, OECD, http://www.sourceoecd.org/development /9264026940
Panagariya, A., Shah, S. and Mishra, D. (2001), “Demand Elasticities in International Trade: Are They Really low?” Journal of Development Economics, vol.64, pp. 313-342.
Pandey, P.R. (2006), ‘Aid for Trade: A Viable Means to Realize Development Round’. Trade Insight. Vol.2, No.1.
Rahman, M and Shadat, W.B. (2006), “NAMA Negotiations in the WTO and Preference Erosion: Concerns of Bangladesh and Other Regional LDCs”. CSGR Working Paper No. 188/06
Rahman, M. and Razzaque, M.A. (1998), “Prospect of Apparel Exports from Bangladesh: Market Access under Uruguay Round and Beyond”, Social Science Review, vol. 15, No. 2, pp.185-209.
Ranjan, P. (2005), “Tariff Negotiations in NAMA and South Asia: July Agreement and Beyond”. Working Paper 3, Centre for Trade and Development, New Delhi.
Ranjan, P. (2006), “Industrial Tariffs and South Asia: Interpreting for Development”, Working Paper 5, Centre for Trade and Development, New Delhi.
Razi, Z. H. (2006), “Future Clothing Exports from Bangladesh: Disaggregated Scenario”, article published in the Daily Star, dated 15 July 2006.
Razzaque, A. (2005), “‘Sustaining RMG Export Growth after MFA Phase-out: An Analysis of Relevant Issues with Reference to Trade and human Development”, Final report of A Preparatory Assistance Project of Ministry of Commerce and United Nations Development Programme, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Razzaque, M. A. (2003), “Agreement on Textiles and Clothing: Bangladesh’s Interest and Position in the Fifth WTO Ministerial”, Paper Prepared for UNCTAD, Geneva.
Razzaque, M.A. and Rahman, M.A. (1996), “Harkin’s Bill and the Issue of Chid Labour: Replicability of Recently Signed MOU Between ILO, UNICEF, and BGMEA in the Non-tradable Sector of Bangladesh”, Journal of Social Studies, vol.73, Centre for Social Studies.
Riedel, J. (1988), “The Demand for LDC Exports of Manufactures: Estimates From Hong Kong”, Economic Journal, vol.98, pp.138-48.
Riedel, J. and Athukorala, P.C. (1995), “Export Growth and the Terms of Trade: the Case of Curious Elasticities”, Chapter 3 in Currie D. and Vines, D. (eds.) North-South Linkages and International Macroeconomic Policy, Cambridge University Press, pp. 29-45.
Senhadji A. and Montenegro, C. (1998), “Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis”, IMF Working Paper, WP/98/149.
Stiglitz, J.E. and Charlton, A. (2006), “Aid for Trade” A Report Prepared for the Commonwealth Secretariat, London.
Subramanian, A. (2003), “Financing of Losses from Preference Erosion”. Research Department, The International Monetary Fund. (February). (WTO: WT/TF/COH/14)
UNCTAD (2001), “Duty and Quota Free Market Access for LDCs: An Analysis of Quad Initiatives”, UNCTAD and Commonwealth Secretariat, London and Geneva
UNCTAD (2004), “Services: Highlights of Consultative Meeting”, Consultative Meeting on WTO July Framework; Trade, Globalization and Development Project Quarterly Newsletter of UNCTAD/DFID/MOC&I, New Delhi, India.
UNCTAD (2005), Handbook of Statistics. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva.
UNCTAD (2006), The Least Developed Countries Report 2006, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva.
UNDP (2005), “Report on Identification of Employment Oriented Export Sectors”, University of Maryland, JOBS Project, United Nations Development Program, Bangladesh.
van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2005), “The Doha Development Agenda and Preference Erosion: Modeling the Impacts,” World Bank, mimeo
van Meijl, J. and van Tongeren, F. (2001), “Multilateral trade liberalisation and developing countries: A North-South perspective on agriculture and processing sectors”. Rapport de l’Agricultural Economics Research Institute, The Hague.
Winters, L.A. and Chang, W (2000), “Regional Integration and Import Prices: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of International Economics, vol.51, no.2, pp.363-78. Winters, L.A., Walmsley, T., Wang, Z.K. and Grynberg, R. (2002), “Liberalizing Labour Mobility under the GATS, Commonwealth Secretariat, London
World Bank (2005), “Rice: Global Trade Protectionist Policies, and the Impact of Trade Liberalization”, Global Agricultural trade and Developing Countries. New York: The World Bank.
World Bank (2006), World Development Indicators CD ROM. World Bank, Washington DC
WTO (2001), Doha Ministerial Declaration, WTO, Geneva
WTO (2004), “WTO Agriculture negotiations: The issues, and where we are now”, Briefing Document, WTO, Geneva.
WTO (2005), Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration, WTO, Geneva.