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Assessing the Impact of Deterrence on Road Safety due to the Demerit Point System

Chandler, Vincent (2012): Assessing the Impact of Deterrence on Road Safety due to the Demerit Point System.

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Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of a decrease in demerit points on the probability of traffic violation. To address the inherent heterogeneity of drivers, I use the expiration process of points to compare the behaviour of similar drivers with different demerit points. I find that a 3-point decrease in the number of demerit points only has an impact for drivers close to the limit, but increases their probability of violation by 50 to 80 percent.

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