Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League

Lahvicka, Jiri (2012): Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League.

Abstract

This paper presents a new method of calculating match importance (a common variable in sports attendance demand studies) using Monte Carlo simulation. Using betting odds and actual results of 12 seasons of English Premier League, it is shown that the presented method is based on realistic predictions of match results and season outcomes. The Monte Carlo method provides results closest to Jennett’s approach; however, it does not require ex-post information and can be used for any type of season outcome.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: sports attendance; match importance; seasonal uncertainty; Monte Carlo
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; D - Microeconomics > D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics > D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis; L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L83 - Sports ; Gambling ; Restaurants ; Recreation ; Tourism

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