Vieru, Elena Bianca (2011): How can we anticipate crises? Published in: The Annals of The "Ştefan cel Mare" University of Suceava. Fascicle of The Faculty of Economics and Public Administration , Vol. 11, No. 2(14) (2011): pp. 128-134.
Download (341kB) | Preview
Every crisis should teach us a valuable lesson. However, it seems that we learn almost nothing since they still occur from time to time strongly affecting the world economies. The basic question from where we started our research and to which we tried to answer as clearly as possible is the following: How can we anticipate future crises before they begin to make their presence felt on the global economic scene? The answer is both simple and handy, as the most consistent and relevant explanations in this regard come from the Austrian School of economics. We refer, in particular, to the theory of business cycle. Analyzing this problem, we discovered multiple causes, or better said clues that might help us anticipate and recognize the onset time of economic recessions. We will focus on two of them, considered to be the most important ones. The first clue is closely linked to an expansionary monetary policy that led to a deterioration of credit and to inflation. The second sign that we will be argued in this paper, a sign in close connection with the first clue, is due to the application of protectionist measures or, in other words, the second cause was actually the state’s interventionism.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||How can we anticipate crises?|
|English Title:||How can we anticipate crises?|
|Keywords:||Austrian School, business cycle, crisis, expansion, interventionism|
|Subjects:||E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E40 - General
B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925 > B25 - Historical ; Institutional ; Evolutionary ; Austrian
B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches > B53 - Austrian
G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages
|Depositing User:||Elena Bianca Vieru|
|Date Deposited:||19 Sep 2012 11:43|
|Last Modified:||14 Jan 2016 01:26|
Bouckaert, Boudewijn, Godard, Anette (2000), Hayek revisited, Cheltenham, United Kingdom. Ebeling, Richard M. (1996), The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle, Available at http://mises.org/books/austtrad.pdf. Ebeling, Richard M. (2007), Austrian Economics and the Political Economy of Freedom, Available at http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/austrian-economics-and-the-political-economy-of-freedom/. Evans, Anthony J., Baxendale, Toby (2008), Austrian Business Cycle Theory in Light of Rational Expectations: The Role of Heterogeneity, the Monetary Footprint, and Adverse Selection in Monetary Expansion, Available at http://mises.org/journals/qjae/pdf/qjae11_2_1.pdf. Garrison, R. (1991), New Classical and Old Austrian economics: Equilibrium business cycle theory in perspective, Available at http://www.springerlink.com/content/mt77546122125j36/. Hayek, A. Friedrich (1933), Monetary theory and the trade cycle, Available at http://mises.org/daily/3121. Hayek, Friedrich A. (1935/1967), Prices and Production, 2nd edition New York: Augustus M. Kelley. Hill, Greg (2010), From Hayek to Keynes: G.L.S. shackle and ignorance of the future, Available at http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1004&context=greg_hill. Huerta, Jesus de Soto (2010), Moneda, creditul bancar şi ciclurile economice, Ludwig von Mises Romania, http://mises.ro/608/. Huerta, Jesus de Soto (2010), Economic Recessions, Banking Reform and the Future of Capitalism, Available at http://www.cobdencentre.org/author/huertadesoto/. Huerta, Jesus de Soto (2008), Financial Crisis and Recession, Available at http://mises.org/daily/3138. Huerta, Jesus de Soto (2008), The Essence of the Austrian School, Available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0270.2009.01892.x/full. Hülsmann, Jörg, Guido (2000), Banks Cannot Create Money, Independent Review, V, No. 1, pp. 101-110, Avaliable at http://mises.ro/730/. Klausinger, Hansjorg (2005), The Austrians on relative inflation as a Cause of Crisis, Available at http://econpapers.repec.org/article/cupjhisec/v_3a25_3ay_3a2003_3ai_3a02_3ap_3a221-237_5f00.htm. Mises, Ludwig von (1963), Human Action. A Treatise on Economics, Available at http://mises.org/books/humanaction.pdf. Mises, Ludwig von (1981), The Theory of Money and Credit, Available at http://www.econlib.org/library/Mises/msT.html. Mises, Ludwig von (2006), The Causes of the Economic Crisis (And Other Essays Before and After the Great Depression), originally published as On the Manipulation of Money and Credit in 1978, Available at http://mises.org/resources/3361. Mises, Ludwig von (1933), The current status of business cycle. Research and its prospect for the immediate future, Princeton, Princeton University Press. Rothbard, Murray N. (2008), Economic Depressions: Their Cause and Cure, Available at http://mises.org/daily/3127. Rothbard, Murray N. (1980), Ludwig von Mises pe înţelesul tuturor, Available at http://mises.ro/244/. Rothbard, Murray N. (1990), What Has the Government Done With Our Money, Available at http://mises.org/books/whathasgovernmentdone.pdf.