Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalisation: An overreaction to repressed demand?

Brissimis, Sophocles N. and Garganas, Eugenie N. and Hall, Stephen G. (2012): Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalisation: An overreaction to repressed demand?

Abstract

In this paper we empirically analyse the factors which determined consumer credit in Greece in the period before and after the financial liberalisation, while accounting for significant changes in structure due to the lifting of credit restrictions and the subsequent impressive boom of consumer loans. We use multivariate cointegration techniques to estimate a vector error correction model (VECM) and identify separate demand and supply relationships for consumer loans. We introduce demand and supply-related shifts in parameters through the inclusion of appropriate dummy variables and trends in the long-run relationships. We partly deviate from the typical Johansen procedure and estimate the model in two steps. We find that the theoretical exclusion and coefficient-size restrictions on the demand and supply cointegrating vectors are valid. Our results are consistent with the operation of a bank lending channel in Greece. We also find that the supply side was mostly responsible for the acceleration of consumer loan growth following credit liberalisation.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Consumer credit; Financial liberalisation; Cointegration; Structural breaks
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply ; Credit ; Money Multipliers; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O16 - Financial Markets ; Saving and Capital Investment ; Corporate Finance and Governance; G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G21 - Banks ; Depository Institutions ; Micro Finance Institutions ; Mortgages

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