Does Output Gap, Labor's Share or Unemployment Rate Drive Inflation?

Lanne, Markku and Luoto, Jani (2012): Does Output Gap, Labor's Share or Unemployment Rate Drive Inflation? Published in: HECER Discussion Papers No. 351 (2012)

Abstract

We propose a new methodology for ranking in probability the commonly proposed drivers of inflation in the New Keynesian model. The approach is based on Bayesian model selection among restricted VAR models, each of which embodies only one or none of the candidate variables as the driver. Simulation experiments suggest that our procedure is superior to the previously used conventional pairwise Granger causality tests in detecting the true driver. Empirical results lend little support to labor share, output gap or unemployment rate as the driver of U.S. inflation.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Inflation; New Keynesian Phillips curve; Bayesian variable selection
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General

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